The potential attack on Iran by the US could alter the geopolitical equations not just in the Middle East, but across the globe too. Analysts say a US assault on Iran would be extremely detrimental to Russia and its president, Vladimir Putin.
US President Donald Trump’s war against Iran will have a serious impact on Russia, considering that Tehran has long been an important ally for the Kremlin, including in defence. The countries shared technological cooperation, Shahed missile production, naval exercises, and a strategic partnership agreement. Like, Republican Don Ritter recently stated bluntly: "The fall of the Islamist regime in Iran would be a huge defeat for Putin."
But, Russia could make the turn to its advantage. According to Ukrainian analyst Larisa Voloshina, though Russia and Iran are part of the same anti-Western axis, the two countries are also competitors in the oil market. China buys 90% of Iranian oil and is reducing its purchases of Russian oil.
Voloshina believes that Putin would want a protracted war between the United States and Iran and not a deal. “Then, the sanctions will be lifted, and Iranian oil will flow to the markets. This is disadvantageous for Russia. After all, this oil is under sanctions, and only China buys it for next to nothing. If it ends up on the oil markets, the Russians will lose the profits from their own sales,” she noted.
She added that if the US gets involved in a war and starts blocking Chinese tankers, the black market trade of Iranian oil with China will be affected. The Iranian-financed Houthis will then start sinking American cruisers, causing the price of oil to rise very quickly, and Russia will profit,” the journalist said.
That said, Putin may be worried that Tehran's defeat means one less pillar of support for the anti-Western axis, a weaker negotiating position, fewer resources, less room to maneuver, and less psychological confidence.