With two days left for Bangladesh for the 13th national parliamentary election, surveys have predicted the outcome of the key elections, the first since the collapse of the Sheikh Hasina regime.
According to a survey conducted by Bangladesh’s International Institute of Law and Diplomacy (IILD), the alliance led by the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) will lead the race with 44.1 per cent of the votes. The electoral alliance of 11 political parties led by Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami could receive 43.9 per cent, reported Prothom Alo.
According to the survey, the Tarique Rahman-led BNP is clearly ahead in terms of overall vote share, while the anti-India Jamaat-led electoral alliance is leading in constituencies where victory appears assured. The Islamic forces could secure 105 constituencies, whereas the BNP-led alliance could be assured of victory in 101 seats, the survey added.
The findings also indicate a closely fought contest in 75 constituencies between candidates of the two alliances.
The Jatiya Sangsad (Parliament of Bangladesh) has a total of 350 seats, of which 300 members directly elected from single-member constituencies. Fifty seats are reserved exclusively for women, which are allocated proportionally to parties based on their share of the 300 elected seats.
Another public opinion survey released by Eminence Associates for Social Development (EASD) projects a clear lead for the BNP-led alliance. As per EASD, the BNP-led alliance could win about 208 seats in the election.
According to the findings, the Jamaat-e-Islami–led alliance is projected to secure 46 seats, while the Jatiya Party may win three seats. Other political parties are expected to secure four seats, and independent candidates could win 17 seats, the survey said.
The EASD survey revealed that the majority of voters in Bangladesh still preferred the BNP in terms of political choice. An overwhelming 66.3 per cent of voters favoured the BNP, while Jamaat-e-Islami only garnered 11.9 per cent support. The NCP received 1.7 per cent support, while among others.
The survey results come as a positive sign for India as analysts say the BNP is now occupying the liberal-centrist space once held by the Awami League. Islamist party Jamaat-e-Islami has an explicit anti-India stance, as with NCP, the newly-formed students' party.
Many feel that India will move to improve relations with Tarique Rahman, who met EAM Jaishankar last month, if BNP indeed forms the next government.
The expectation is that New Delhi should seek to strengthen ties across the Bangladeshi political spectrum.
The BNP, on the other hand, has not explicitly maintained an anti-India stance but insists on the "Bangladesh Before All" doctrine, with the slogan "Friend Yes, Master No".