The year 2025 has seen the grinding of a world in transition. The optimism of the early 21st century has shifted into one of retrenchment. From geopolitics to academia, the trends defining this year paint a picture of a world in transition and friction.
The ongoing rush for critical minerals powering Industry 4.0 is ongoing. Lithium, cobalt, nickel, and rare earth elements are in for a scramble. As the green energy transition accelerates, the demand for these minerals has outstripped supply, turning luck into geopolitical leverage.
In 2025, we are witnessing the weaponisation of supply chains. Nations are no longer just trading, but they are also hoarding. The race is particularly intense in Africa and Latin America, where major powers are vying for exclusive extraction rights. This isn't just about electric vehicles; it is also about national security. A country without a steady stream of cobalt cannot build the batteries that power its drones, grids, or economy.
In the Arctic North, the melting ice caps are revealing new trade routes, buried minerals and a new theatre of conflict. The Arctic is no longer a desolate frontier but a strategic geopolitical area of competition. Russia, with its unparalleled fleet of nuclear icebreakers, has moved aggressively to assert dominance over the Northern Sea Route, a shipping lane that slashes transit times between Europe and Asia. Meanwhile, NATO allies are ramping up Arctic exercises, and China, declaring itself a "near-Arctic state," is pushing for access. The Arctic is a region defined by resources, and it is under both ecological and geopolitical stress.
The age of total war may be on pause, but the era of friction and low-level conflict is here. We are seeing a proliferation of "grey zone" warfare, minor skirmishes, cyber-attacks, and proxy battles that hover just below the threshold of full-scale war. Border tensions are simmering from the Himalayas to Eastern Europe and the South China Sea. With Thailand and Cambodia facing friction over ancient temple sites, India and Pakistan engaging in a major skirmish earlier this year, and ongoing conflicts in Israel and Ukraine, the rules-based order is fraying. Countries are testing boundaries using localised aggression to achieve irredentist goals.
As a result of all the above, the most intangible yet profound shift is the mood. Global optimism is in decline. The post-pandemic bounce is now followed by the grim reality of inflation, debt crises, and slowing growth. Economists are sounding the alarm for a global recession that feels less like a cycle and more like a structural adjustment. The global economy is slowing, and consumer confidence is low. The cost of living is high, and the middle class is facing stress around the world with rising inequality. This economic pessimism feeds political instability and populism as citizens across the world lose faith that the future will be better.
In the United States and parts of Europe, the culture war has turned squarely against elite institutions. Top universities, once revered as bastions of global centres of excellence, are under unprecedented attack. Accusations of ideological bias, bloated administration, and a disconnect from the working class have eroded trust. It is a crisis of legitimacy. Politicians are threatening to restrict funding, and the very value of a "liberal education" is being questioned. This scepticism extends to media, scientific bodies, and international organisations, creating a vacuum of authority where conspiracy theories thrive.
Tragically, 2025 is also marked by a disturbing rise in racism and xenophobia. As immigration pressure becomes a central issue, nativist sentiments are hardening. Political movements across the West and beyond are capitalising on identity politics, scapegoating minorities for failures. This has resulted in harsher immigration policies, a spike in hate crimes, and the mainstreaming of rhetoric that was once confined to the fringes. The digital age, rather than fostering empathy, has often created echo chambers that amplify prejudice, making the fight for racial equality harder and more urgent than ever.
Finally, the dream of a borderless world is fading. Global mobility is decreasing, visas are becoming more limited, and 'digital nomads' are facing regulatory backlashes. Nations are prioritising domestic labour and security over the free movement of people. For students, workers, and families, the world is becoming a harder place to navigate. Restrictions are going up, not just for trade, but also for people. This reduction in mobility stifles the cultural and intellectual exchange that drives innovation, leaving nations more insular and less dynamic.
The trends of 2025 suggest a world turning inward. It is a time of churn and friction. The illusions of inevitable progress through globalisation have been restricted, leaving us to confront the hard work of rebuilding trust, managing resources, and finding new ways to cooperate. The path forward can only improve with greater empathy, care and cooperation for the fellow human.
Rajesh Mehta is an international affairs expert who focuses on areas such as market entry, innovation, geopolitics and public policy.