As Prime Minister Narendra Modi embarks on his landmark visit to China this weekend, signs of a tightening of relations between New Delhi and Beijing are on the horizon. While geopolitical experts consider this the strengthening of the Global South and the emergence of a multipolar world, some believe the new India-China rapport could threaten not only Washington but also Moscow. This rapprochement suggests a new multipolar world order emerging, potentially sidelining Russia.
Primakov Triangle
The hints are not so subtle, according to Moscow Times. An opinion piece that appeared on the website says that, despite Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s statement that the split between the West and the Global South could breathe new life into the Primakov Triangle, neither New Delhi nor Beijing was enthusiastic. The Primakov Triangle is a foreign policy concept championed by Yevgeny Primakov of Russia in the late 1990s, advocating a strategic alliance between Russia, China, and India to counterbalance the United States.
This hinted that both the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and the Modi government believe they can iron out their issues bilaterally, rather than relying on third-party intervention. “The goodwill Russia has built playing peacemaker over the past five years no longer holds sway,” the opinion piece added.
BRICS, SCO
Moscow could have apprehensions that Russian-dominated organisations like BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) could lose their significance as the new world order could be dictated by the two growing economies of China and India.
Arms deal
One major beneficiary of the rivalry between India and China was Russia. As per figures, India was the world’s second-largest arms importer from 2020-24, with Russian-made weaponry accounting for 36% of its overall purchases. But India could be diversifying and is looking at France and Israel. Some feel India could even purchase advanced armaments from China to complement its indigenous production capabilities. This could come at Russia’s expense.
Second fiddle to Beijing
India has traditionally looked to Russia to keep a check on Beijing’s expansionist ambitions. But that has changed. The sanctions imposed on it for the Ukraine war mean that it has been reduced to a mere junior partner in its “no limits” agreement with China. This means the Kremlin’s credibility as a de facto guarantor of stability across South and East Asia is fast eroding, according to Moscow Times.
Reverse Kissinger
Both India and China believe that Moscow’s eastward pivot is little more than a knee-jerk reaction to its continued isolation from the West. China believes that Trump could pull off a reverse Kissinger by peeling “white Christian Russia” away from China. Both New Delhi and Beijing believe this could happen, and Russia would take the bait in light of the sheer economic strain.