The conflict between Cambodia and Thailand escalated on Friday, as the countries exchanged heavy artillery fire across the disputed border. At least 16 have been reported to be dead, and tens of thousands have been displaced in the border battle.
The conflict broke out near the disputed area of an ancient temple when five Thai soldiers were injured in a landmine explosion. An 800-kilometre section of land border between the countries had been demarcated partly by France, which colonised Cambodia. The area is rich with archaeologically significant sites that are claimed by both countries, according to the CNN.
In May, troops exchanged fire at a disputed area called the “Emerald Triangle”, killing a Cambodian soldier. Both countries' governments then proceeded to pursue a series of tit-for-tat actions that included border restrictions, banning of imports and cutting off entertainment from the other country.
Both countries have blamed the other for firing first, with Thailand accusing Cambodia of deliberately targeting civilians. Meanwhile, Cambodia has alleged that Thailand was using cluster munitions.
Fighting re-erupted before dawn, with clashes reported in 12 locations, up from six on Thursday, according to Thailand's military, which accused Cambodia of using artillery and Russian-made BM-21 rocket systems to target areas that included schools and hospitals.
The military alliances of Thailand and Cambodia
The regional bloc Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN) have called for both countries to stand down. However, the bloc is known for its non-interference policy and is unlikely to try to mediate the dispute.
According to experts who spoke to the Guardian, China is the only viable mediator since it has leverage over both countries. Both countries have also relied on Chinese tourists to boost their tourism sector.
China is, however, known to be more allied with Cambodia as both countries hav emaintained an allaince for decades that include military arms. A majority of the weapons used by the Royal Cambodian Army are bought from China and Russia. According to a report by the South China Morning Post last month, Cambodia was likely to strike Thailand using its Chinese-sourced weapons; however, China would not involve itself in the conflict, according to an analyst.
According to former People’s Liberation Army instructor Song Zhongping, who spoke to SCMP, after purchasing, the usage rights of the weapons lie entirely with the recipient country, and China does not have many conditional terms applicable to them. “Thailand is both a traditional friend of China and a traditional ally of the United States, while Cambodia has close ties with China,” he said.
Last month, Minister of National Defence Tea Seiha said Cambodia focuses on its defensive capabilities and that they do not develop weapons for invasion, in a report by Phnom Penh Post. The news agency had also reported that about 95 per cent of its weapons come from China.
Thailand also gets some of its weapons from China. However, a significant per cent of its munitions have been from the US and Europe. The country’s military capacity is also much larger than Cambodia's and they have been diversifying its arms by developing domestic weapons in recent years. Its well funded defence budget stands at $5.73 bn compared to Cambodia’s $1.3 bn.
Thailand’s air force, meanwhile, said that it deployed F-16 fighter jets in Cambodia this Wednesday. They accused Cambodia of using Russian-made BM-21 Rocket Systems and heavy artillery. Cambodia’s defence ministry, meanwhile, condemned Thailand’s use of Cluster munitions, according to Reuters. Thailand is not part of the Convention on Cluster Munitions (CCM), which prohibits the development, production and stockpiling of such weapons.
While Thailand is a major US ally, China’s share in the country’s weapons supply have risen in recent years. According to data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), from 2004 to 2023, Thailand acquired more arms from China than from the United States as countries had been competing to sell weapons to the Royal Thai Army.
Out of the two countries that both rely on tourism, Cambodia is set to lose more as it sees fewer tourists and is seen as more unstable, according to senior fellow for Southeast Asia and South Asia at the Council on Foreign Relations Joshua Kurlantzick, who spoke to CNBC.
The story so far
Thailand’s Acting Prime Minister Phumtham Wechayachai said the fighting affected four provinces. The Interior Ministry was ordered to evacuate people at least 50 kilometres (30 miles) from the border.
"The current situation involves acts of intrusion and aggression that are causing harm to the people's lives. The situation has intensified and could escalate into a state of war. At present, it's a confrontation involving heavy weapons," he told reporters.
On Friday, Thailand's foreign ministry said it has rejected mediation efforts from third countries after offers to facilitate dialogue from the United States, China and Malaysia. The country wants to resolve the conflict through bilateral negotiations.
Meanwhile, Cambodia has written to the United Nations Security Council to convene a meeting to stop the "unprovoked and premeditated military aggression" by Thailand.