Chinese Communist Party's new power structure under Xi Jinping has given rise to concerns of geopolitical risks for India, Taiwan, and South China Sea in the coming months as the Chinese President has linked the assertive territorial claims with the need to shape security postures to win ''local wars''. The calls for restraint have already started coming in.
There was a brief halt during the 20th National Congress where Xi's consolidation of power became more important than a strong posture. Last week was spent by Taiwan cementing its diplomatic ties with King Mswati III of Eswatini who visited Taipei, advocating ''entry of Taiwan to the UN family'', which showed that Taiwan's diplomatic allies are not shrinking despite the military escalation in August.
Now that the Party Congress is over in China, all eyes are on how Xi will roll out his promises. The first ripples are being felt in its vicinity in Taiwan where both the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and the main opposition Kuomintang (KMT) are denouncing the centralisation of power in Beijing and the coercive tactics in Cross-Strait relations. While the DPP has categorically been denouncing China's coercive tactics, even the KMT seems to be unable to maintain a middle way approach after Xi's open declaration that he will not renounce the use of force to reunify with Taiwan.
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''We regret that Xi, who came to power in 2012, has abandoned political reform to centralise power, now ruling the Chinese mainland with a tighter authoritarian grip. We urge the authorities in Beijing to recognise the fact that the Republic of China exists, and cease its coercive tactics so that Cross-Strait relations can move forward,'' Dr Chih yung Ho, deputy director of the department of culture and communication of KMT told THE WEEK.
He said both sides of the Taiwan Strait, including the administration of President Tsai Ing-wen need to exercise restraint so that both sides can avoid misjudgment from unnecessarily escalating the situation.
''Even though it may not be worth a penny, the recent proposal by Elon Musk to make a “special administrative region” to avoid war reflects concerns of the international business community about escalated tensions and geopolitical risks in the Taiwan Strait. To avoid war, the Tsai administration ought to express goodwill and refrain from unnecessary provocation,'' said the KMT leader.
The underlined message is clear: political parties in Taiwan do not look at Xi's third term with hope, rather appear skeptical about tensions growing sooner than later.
Shen Ming-shih, the acting deputy CEO of Taiwan's Institute for National Defense and Security Research, said Xi will not back down on the US and Taiwan policy as he has gained monopoly of power at the 20th party congress. ''The Jiang faction and the Hu faction have greatly been weakened. It is not ruled out that these people who have lost power are full of resentment, waiting for an opportunity to retaliate or restrain them, and use major events to challenge the legitimacy of Xi,'' he said.
But it all depends on how well the new entrants, who are Xi's core team, are able to implement his promises. ''Those who have entered the Politburo Standing Committee may find it difficult if it is not their main expertise,'' he said. ''For example, Li Qiang has no experience as a vice premier, and Ding Xuexiang has insufficient experience as executive vice premier. How Xi's political and legal secretary implements the follow-up anti-corruption work, how Zhao Leji is in-charge of the National People's Congress remains to be seen. The leaders from different factions will also wait to see if there are any mistakes,'' he added.
But for now, Liu Jieyi, director of the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council, has not made it to the Central Committee, and China watchers are closely examining whether this means that the power structure of the Taiwan Affairs Office of the CCP will change. Are the first steps already in the works ?
''Xi Jinping advocates a tough strategy against Taiwan, and does not care about the deterioration of Cross-Strait relations or the possible involvement of the United States and Japan. This was clear during the August military exercise to encircle Taiwan and the launch of missiles into Japan's economic waters,'' said Shen.
While the united front work of peaceful reunification of Taiwan will continue, there is expected to be increased military oppression against Taiwan and use of the two-hands strategy.
Experts watching in India feel that it is only a matter of time before Xi rolls out his strategy. ''In the 19th Party Congress, Xi mentioned threat from separatist forces but there is a slight change this time when he refers to external forces trying to interfere in the reunification process,'' said Namrata Hasija, research associate at New Delhi-based Centre for China Analysis and Strategy. ''It is also an emotional issue for China as it cannot back down from its stance. So it is a question of only when they will use military power to fulfil the 'one China' dream,'' she said.
With the US interference its biggest deterrent so far, the next step is only to wait and watch. ''Even though there is no mention of India, when Xi talks of local wars, what does it include? It is the border dispute with India, the reunification of Taiwan and territorial assertions in South China sea.''