The weekend has seen Taliban gain one provincial capital after another in the north, even as the Afghan government's security forces are clinging on tenuously to their hold over the south. The Taliban is now reportedly in control over the northern cities of Kunduz, Sheberghan, Taloqan, Sar-e Pol and has even announced the capture of Aibak.
Northern Afghanistan has traditionally been opposed to the Taliban; it had offered stiff resistance in the 1990s as well. At Sheberghan, the outfit orchestrated a prison break and freed 700 men, mostly Taliban cadres, who are likely to join in their fight almost immediately. The Taliban also has gained control of Zaranj, in Nimroz province of south western Afghanistan, which reportedly fell even without a fight. Prison inmates were released in Zaranj as well immediately after the Taliban takeover.
It may be argued that the cities captured are provincial ones, low in population density and economically less significant. The other way of looking at the development, however, is that the fighting, which was concentrated in the rural areas during the summer, has now entered the urbanscape.
In an earlier interview to THE WEEK, Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid had said they were giving cities a certain time frame for discussion, before using force to capture them. The time for talking, clearly, is over. Taliban now says it has trained its sights on Mazar-i-Sharif. This is one of the most important cities in the north, and if the Afghan defence forces are unable to hold it, the result would be loss of loss of face and slumping of morale. As it is, the forces are strained, trying to defend Kandhar and Helmand provinces in the south. The south, populated mainly by Pashtuns, is the Taliban's traditional stronghold and recruitment ground, and it is therefore vital for the Afghan government to retain its control over the region.
Capturing a city (which would mean having toppled the government and police officials in-charge there), however, is only half the victory. Holding on to the win is as important. Taliban had taken over the western city of Qala-e-Naw last month, but was not able to retain it for more than a day—the Afghan forces reclaimed it. Locals say that in cities, people are also taking up the resistance, making it tough for the outfit to hold on to them. “The people are not with Taliban,'' said a university lecturer.
Taliban, however, says it holds sway over 85 per cent of the country, and this would not have been possible without the support it gets from the public.
The one area where the Afghan forces have superiority is air power. However, resources of the air force have been stretched to the maximum. The US still gives some air support to the Afghan forces and there are talks that this will continue even after the withdrawal of the US troops is complete. The US said it will continue to carry air strikes in aid of the forces, even as the Taliban said any such strike after the end of the month will be considered a step back from their agreement and could lead to repercussions. Taliban has already accused India of war crime for giving attack helicopters to the Afghan forces, which it said, was used in the bombing over Lashkar Gah recently. The bombing hit a hospital, causing unintended casualties.
Taliban has been emboldened and on the rampage. Afghan forces have been demoralised after the western troops began withdrawing. However, they haven't given up the fight yet. Will they be able to hold on to the important cities of Kabul, Mazar-i-Sharif, Herat, and Jalalabad? Taliban has already blown up some culverts on the Kabul–Jalalabad Road. Residents fear a siege in the coming days, even if the fighting doesn't enter the cities proper. But with supplies stopping, the days ahead may not be easy any way.
The United Nations Security Council has begun discussions on Afghanistan. Significantly, this month its presidency is with India. Are these discussions too late? What could be an immediate outcome on Afghanistan from the UNSC? Will the Afghan forces be able to ward off Taliban long enough for international action to take shape? And in all this, will peace get any chance?