China announces 3-child policy: Why family planning rules have been relaxed, again

In a major development, the Chinese government on Monday announced a further relaxation of its family planning policy, allowing couples to have up to three children.

China's Global Times reported the move "aims to improve China's population structure and actively respond to the country's ageing problem."

The latest announcement on a three-child policy came after a meeting of the Chinese Communist Party's Politburo on Monday, attended by President Xi Jinping. “Birth policies will be further improved. Policy that allows a couple to have three children will be introduced with supporting measure. This will improve the population structure of China," the South China Morning Post quoted a Politburo statement as saying.

“Other measures suggested include postponing the retirement age, and targeting marriage and family values education campaigns at youth. Improvements would be made on child care service, maternity leave and child birth insurance,” the South China Morning Post reported.

The announcement marks a drastic turnaround for China's family planning policy. The country adopted a 'one-child' policy officially in 1980 to address what was its burgeoning population growth. The policy penalised couples having more than one child.

The one-child policy was implemented with more success in urban centres than rural areas, where the population tended to resist the rule and enforcement was believed to be lenient. The policy showed its benefit towards the mid-1990s as the fertility rate dropped below two children per woman. By 2013, the fertility rate dropped to 1.6 children being born per woman.

In addition to incidents of forced abortion and sterilisation, the one-child policy also led to a skewed sex ratio, with the number of males exceeding females by 3-4 per cent. In 2015, China had a sex ratio of 116 boys being born for every 100 girls, which was among the worst ratios in the world. The preference for boys meant a rise in sex-selective abortion, infanticide and abandonment of baby girls.

In addition to the adverse sex ratio, the one-child policy was deemed unviable to address the problem of an ageing population. In 2015, the Chinese government allowed couples to have two children from 2016 onwards. However, experts had warned the two-child policy would prove inadequate to account for the rapidly ageing population. The South China Morning Post reported, “China’s fertility rate was 1.3 children per woman, which is below the replacement level of 2.1 needed for a stable population.”

Earlier this month, data from China's census saw the population grow at 0.53 per cent from 2010 to 2020, the slowest pace in decades. As countries become more developed, birth rates tend to fall due to higher education levels and career prospects. This often results in an inverted age structure over time, with a country having more old people than young.

"China's working-age population—which it defines as people aged between 16 and 59—has also declined by 40 million as compared to the last census in 2010," the BBC reported at the time. While the size of the workforce, at about 880 million, still remains high, economists have warned the country's demographic dividend would vanish over time.