How Indian diaspora and Kashmir issue could turn the UK elections on Thursday

On September 26, the UK's Opposition Labour Party passed an emergency motion on Kashmir, calling for party leader Jeremy Corbyn to seek international observers to "enter" the region and demand the right of self-determination for its people. "The conference urges the Labour Party to ask Jeremy Corbyn or ensure someone is represented to attend the UNHRC to demand the restoration of basic human rights including the freedom of speech and communication, the lifting of curfews, and to allow the humanitarian aid organisation and international observers to enter the region," read the resolution. This stood completely opposite to Indian assertion that Kashmir was a bilateral issue, with no place for a third-party to intervene.

This resulted in a backlash from the Indian diaspora, estimated to represent over 1.5 million votes in the UK elections.  Labour Party chief Jeremy Corbyn came under pressure from Indian diaspora groups. Respect British Indians, an umbrella group claiming to represent over 100 British Indian outfits set up on Twitter to lobby Labour Party Leader Jeremy Corbyn to withdraw the resolution, had drafted a "pledge" for every British politician contesting the December election to commit to revoking the "partisan and ill-informed" motion passed by the party at its conference. 

Indian-origin Labour Party MPs had also voiced their concerns over the issue, with Leicester-based MP Keith Vaz saying it had caused "unnecessary distress and division within the party and the country" as he wrote to Corbyn to recall the motion. Veteran Labour MP Virendra Sharma also described the matter as a domestic issue, which should not involve the party's intervention. He said: Matters surrounding Kashmir and Article 370 are a matter for India internally, it is not for the Labour Party to decide. This is a domestic issue which needs resolving within Indian law and the Constitution.

Corbyn had to give in. In a letter in November, accessed by Hindustan Times, he wrote, “The emergency motion on Kashmir came through as part of the democratic process of the Labour conference. However, there is a recognition that some of the language used within it could be misinterpreted as hostile to India and the Indian diaspora. Labour understands the concerns the Indian community in Britain has about the situation in Kashmir and takes these concerns very seriously."

"We recognise that the language used in the emergency motion has caused offence in some sections of the Indian diaspora, and in India itself. We are adamant that the deeply felt and genuinely held differences on the issue of Kashmir must not be allowed to divide communities against each other here in the UK."

The Kashmir issue was a divisive one in the UK, one that dealt mainly with vote bank politics. After the revocation of Article 370 and the communication ban that followed in the valley, UK's leader of opposition Jeremy Corbyn tweeted, on August 11, “The situation in Kashmir is deeply disturbing. Human rights abuses taking place are unacceptable. The rights of the Kashmiri people must be respected and UN resolutions implemented.” This was largely seen as a move to placate Pakistani and Mirpuri (from the PoK) voters, who could make or break the Labour Party in crucial seats.

Then came protests, ostensibly sponsored by Pakistani groups, which resulted in some incidents of violence near the Indian embassy, and a controversial 'Free Kashmir' parade coniciding with the Hindu Holi festival of Diwali. 

The resolution on Kashmir created some distance between the Labour and Indian disapora. Indians are the largest ethnic minority group in the UK with over 1.5 million people, accounting for 2.3 per cent of the total UK population. The Labour Party has traditionally attracted loyal support of the Indian community, with over 50 per cent of Indians living in the UK voting Labour in 2017, according to the Runnymede Trust. However, this figure is likely to be hit in the 2019 polls amid growing resentment over a controversial Kashmir motion.

At the same time, Conservative Party's UK PM Boris Johnson—who is currently leading ahead of Labour in the polls— aligned quickly with PM Modi, endorsing his idea of 'New India'. On December 8, he visited a famous Hindu temple, Swaminarayan Mandir in Neasden, north-west London. 

Prime Minister Johnson vowed to partner with his Indian counterpart Prime Minister Narendra Modi on his mission to build a new India. "I know Prime Minister Modi is building a new India. And, we in the UK government will support him fully in his endeavour," said Johnson, whose ruling Conservative Party is currently leading in opinion polls over the Opposition Labour Party. In an indirect reference to Labour's perceived anti-India stance over the issue of Kashmir, he noted: "There can be no place for racism or anti-India sentiment of any kind in this country. British Indians have played a vital role in helping the Conservatives win elections in the past. When I told Narendrabhai [Modi] this, he just laughed and said Indians are always on the winning side," said a tilak and garland sporting Johnson.

At the same time, the community's relation with the Labour Party got progressively worse. Even Labour Friends of India (LFIN), the representative diaspora group of the UK's Opposition Labour Party, criticised the party for not including sufficient Indian origin candidates. The outfit, which lobbies for closer ties between the party and India as well as its diaspora in the UK, acknowledged that relations between the Indian community and Labour have been "strained" over its perceived anti-India stance on Kashmir and the lack of appropriate representation in its candidates list is likely to make matters worse.

"We express our regret that the Labour Party has selected just one candidate of Indian heritage in 39 safe Labour seats, and no Indian heritage candidate in 100 target seats. Furthermore, despite NEC (National Executive Committee) panels shortlisting or even selecting candidates in areas with a large Indian community such as Leicester, Ealing, Ilford, West Bromwich and Derby, no Indian-heritage candidates were selected. Despite making representations on this matter, our calls have been ignored,"

There were vigorous online and offline campaigns too. Some of the anti-Labour messages doing the rounds on WhatsApp and Twitter include attacks on the party as being "anti-Hindu" for not condemning protests organised by pro-Pakistani groups in London

A particular video that is being shared widely depicts a controversial right-wing British journalist being heckled by protesters during the so-called "Free Kashmir" rally on Diwali last month, in an attempt to accuse Labour of blindly supporting "Pakistan's propaganda" over India's abrogation of Article 370 to convert the state of Jammu and Kashmir into Union Territories.

Then there were support groups like Overseas Friends of BJP UK, who, The Guardian reported, campaigning for the Conservative Party in 48 marginal seats. However, the report that it was proactively campaigning against the Labour Party over the Kashmir issue were dismissed by its leader. "Our effort has been to focus on all areas with a significant Indian diaspora population to try and better inform the electorate," said OFBJP president Kuldeep Shekhawat. 

Will the Kashmir issue mobilise into something larger? Experts point out that the idea that they could be mobilised into voting en masse over one particular issue is unlikely to be the case. "While Kashmir may be a potent issue for some in the diaspora community, and therefore expressly concerned over Labour's interventionist stance, it is not for all," said Rahul Roy-Chaudhury, Senior Fellow for South Asia at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) think tank in London

"Other factors such as Brexit may be equally important to British Indian diaspora voters, along with differing voting preferences on the basis of origin (a proportion of the diaspora originate from Eastern Africa), socio-economic status, age and traditional voting patterns/party loyalty," he said

Sunder Katwala, Director of the integration think tank British Future, also highlighted the history of subcontinent issues finding their way into British politics without a major impact on the outcome of elections

"Only a vocal minority of voters would see Kashmir as the primary issue in how to vote in a British General Election," he said

"For most British Indian voters, questions of who should lead the country, Brexit, the economy and taxation, schools and hospitals are going to be more important than views on international affairs may often reinforce broader views about [UK Prime Minister] Boris Johnson or Jeremy Corbyn, whether supportive or sceptical, for voters with different views of the India-Pakistan conflict," he said.

-Inputs from PTI