While Iran continues to be under a naval blockade, an intelligence report has detailed how the Islamic Republic continues to carry out huge smuggling operations worth hundreds of millions of dollars using borrowed identities and disrupting navigation systems. The revelation by Windward, which specialises in artificial intelligence-based maritime intelligence, shows how the Islamic Republic is managing to circumvent sanctions under the radar with the help of countries far from it.
According to the report, the method is based on falsifying location data. The ships transmit false data to automatic identification systems, creating a false impression that they are anchored in Iraqi ports, while in reality, they slip under the cover of digital darkness to Iranian ports to load the prohibited cargo. Once the oil has been loaded, the tankers re-emerge on the digital map, choosing shipping routes that give the impression that these are legitimate Iraqi exports.
Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) are used almost exclusively to transport crude oil. According to Winward, each VLCC can hold about 2 million barrels of oil, so four of them would hold 8 million barrels, worth about $800 million at $100 per barrel.
Handysize/Medium Range/LR ships are often used to transport clean petroleum products (refined oil) over short distances, such as gasoline, diesel, marine fuel (fuel oil), or jet fuel, which is currently in short supply. They may also carry petrochemical products that may have remained in Iran after the attacks, such as methanol or ammonia. The smaller size of these tankers allows them to reach most ports in the world and makes them difficult to track.
However, the report does not point an accusing finger at Iraq for active involvement in the process, but it does name three countries that help complete the fraud by falsely registering the ships as sailing under a different flag. The countries that cooperate with the Islamic Republic include Malawi (Africa), Guyana (South America) and the Caribbean island nation of Curacao. “The signs of forgery, including erratic patterns and false port markings, highlight the changing tactics used by the Shadow Fleet, as the blockade more than halves Iranian oil loadings and exports,” the company told FOX Network.
Additionally, the report explicitly states that one of the tankers is defined as an "LPG Carrier" - gas for cooking and industry. In other words, Iran is not just smuggling crude oil, but is running an entire economic system that includes the entire energy value chain.
Meanwhile, videos from the Iran-Pakistan border show a huge convoy of vehicles transporting fuel between the countries. In the past, the Revolutionary Guards used to take a tough stance against these smuggling networks, but due to the American naval blockade that makes it difficult to export regular oil, the authorities in Iran are not only "turning a blind eye" but are actually allowing the movement of the convoys to relieve the enormous pressure on the country's oil storage facilities, which are filled to capacity.