With ceasefire expiring in hours, will Iran come to the table in Islamabad?

A second round of peace talks between the United States and Iran, scheduled to take place in Islamabad, remains uncertain so far, with neither side confirming its delegation was travelling to Pakistan and a two-week ceasefire set to expire on Wednesday.

Vice President J.D. Vance was expected to lead the American delegation, alongside Jared Kushner and Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff. President Trump told reporters on Monday that Vance was already on his way to Pakistan. American officials then clarified that he was still in Washington, and that he is expected to depart today—but only if there is sufficient confidence that Iran will also send representatives. Two Iranian officials said that Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the speaker of parliament who led Iran's delegation at the first round of talks, would attend if Vance did.

Iran's foreign ministry gave no public confirmation. Spokesman Esmail Baghaei declined to say whether Tehran would participate, describing American travel plans as "their own business”. Pakistan said it had deployed thousands of security personnel to its capital in anticipation of the meeting.

The ceasefire, which came into effect on the evening of April 7, is due to expire on Wednesday. Trump said in an interview with Bloomberg on Monday that he considered it over "Wednesday evening Washington time" and that it was "highly unlikely" he would extend it. Asked whether he expected fighting to resume if no agreement was reached, Trump said: "If there's no deal, I would certainly expect." He added that he was "not going to be rushed into making a bad deal."

Running alongside the diplomatic uncertainty is the standoff over the Strait of Hormuz. The US Navy said it had turned back 27 ships as part of its blockade of Iranian ports, which began a week ago. Trump has said the blockade will remain in place until a deal is reached. Iran reimposed its own restrictions on the waterway after a brief reversal over the weekend, when Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi announced the strait would be reopened. Trump reasserted the American blockade shortly afterwards, and Iranian forces reimposed their own the following day. Crude oil prices rose towards $100 a barrel on Monday.

Iranian officials have presented conflicting signals on the question of negotiations. President Masoud Pezeshkian said on social media that there was "deep historical mistrust" between Iran and the United States, and warned that Americans "seek Iran's surrender”. He also said war would not serve either country's interests. Foreign ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei said Iranian officials did not see "any serious sign of US commitment" to a deal. In private, however, several officials said Iran was still planning to travel to Pakistan.

Analysts say Iran's leadership is navigating pressure from two directions. The government faces a hard-line domestic constituency that has rallied against any concessions following weeks of American and Israeli strikes, as well as sustained pressure from Washington's coercive diplomatic strategy.

At the same time, the substantive gaps between the US and Iran remain wide. Washington is seeking a permanent halt to Iran's nuclear programme and physical custody of Iran's stockpile of approximately 400 kilograms of highly enriched uranium. Iran has rejected both positions, and has said any restrictions on its nuclear activities must be time-limited. Tehran is also seeking $20 billion in sanctions relief and the release of frozen assets, as well as approximately $270 billion in war reparations for damage caused by American and Israeli strikes.

Trump has threatened to target Iranian power plants and civilian infrastructure if no deal is reached. Some Iranian officials have said they remain concerned that their negotiators could come under attack even while talks were under way. Some negotiators are even wary of being placed in a position of having to make concessions under pressure, according to an Iranian expert.

In Washington, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer announced that Democrats would force a fifth vote on a war powers resolution seeking to require congressional authorisation for military operations against Iran. Republican majorities in both chambers have blocked previous attempts.

The next 24 hours are likely to be decisive. If Vance boards a plane for Islamabad today, it will be taken as a signal that back-channel assurances have been given and that Iran intends to follow. If neither delegation moves, the ceasefire will expire on Wednesday with no talks, no deal, and no clear indication of what comes next.