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Donald Trump's Hormuz blockade to put 20,000 lives at risk? How Iran's 'deadly vortex' could escalate war

The fragile ceasefire had been paving the way for the evacuation of about 20,000 sailors aboard the roughly 2,000 ships stranded in the Persian Gulf amid the war

(Clockwise from left) Representative image of the Strait of Hormuz, Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, and US President Donald Trump | AP, Reuters

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US President Donald Trump on Sunday imposed a naval blockade on the Strait of Hormuz, sparking sharp reactions from Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) against violating the ceasefire.

This comes after the 21-hour peace talks between Iran and the US at Islamabad failed. This has already put about 20,000 lives in potential danger, which risks turning the strait into a floating prison.

Notably, the two-week ceasefire was supposed to last until April 22, and was slowly paving the way for the evacuation of about 20,000 sailors aboard the roughly 2,000 ships that remain stranded in the Persian Gulf, as of April 8, according to the International Maritime Organization (IMO), the UN's specialised maritime agency.

This is because the closure of the strait—since the beginning of the war—has severely reduced the flow of traffic. 

From about 150 vessels per day to single-digit transits, the reduced energy flows left seafarers stranded on their ships, and also caused major damage to global trade, which, in turn, spiked oil prices and cost of living in various countries.

"(The sailors) have spent more than one month in a tense and volatile situation, unable to leave their ships," said Damien Chevallier, Director, Maritime Safety Division, at the IMO.

"The longer this goes, the more detrimental it is for them,” Arsenio Dominguez, the secretary-general of the IMO, told Al Jazeera on Sunday, reiterating the 20,000-sailor figure.

Notably, two empty Pakistan-linked tankers headed for the Strait of Hormuz turned around after news of the peace talks failure spread, according to maritime tracker Vortexa.

According to Pamela Munger, head of Europe market analysis at Vortexa, such vessel movements showed that Iran was "still very much" in control of the strait, as per a CNN report.

In that regard, the exchange of attacks over the blockade is likely to become a major escalation in the war, endangering the lives of the roughly 20,000 sailors stranded at sea, who would have to be evacuated by other means—in addition to naval personnel from both sides.

What Trump said about the naval blockade

According to the terms of the new blockade on the strait, "effective immediately", the US Navy has been tasked with blocking all vessels from trying to exit or enter the Strait of Hormuz.

Trump claimed that vessels that had paid Iran's alleged toll for safe passage would be sought and would have to face legal action.

He added that certain other countries were also going to be involved in the blockade, but did not name them.

"At some point, we will reach an 'ALL BEING ALLOWED TO GO IN, ALL BEING ALLOWED TO GO OUT' basis," he wrote in a Truth Social post.

Iran's response

Notably, the first steps in the blockade would involve sending US Navy warships into the strait—not only for securing it by force, but also for de-mining purposes.

Indeed, Iran has earlier claimed that it was unable to effectively de-mine the strait due to constraints like forgetting mine placements, and also changes in mine positions.

However, Iran has not explicitly asked for US assistance in clearing mines in the strait—even before the talks failed—and has, instead, called the US clearing operations a potential violation of the fragile ceasefire.

Iran also released footage of a warning it allegedly issued to a US Navy warship on Saturday, declaring that it would be attacked in "30 minutes", and forcing it to turn back. Many Iranian embassies posted the video, which the US has not yet confirmed, to their accounts on X.

Building on this alleged threat, the IRGC has now warned the US that it still had full control over the Strait of Hormuz, and that any "wrong move"—the deployment of warships—would trap them in a "deadly vortex".