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Is Trump’s final ultimatum driving the US-Iran conflict to a dangerous turning point?

Trump has demanded that Iran agree to American terms, principally the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz

A woman holds a poster depicting the late Irans Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, left, and the late revolutionary founder Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini during a pro-government gathering in a square in Tehran | AP

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The confrontation between the United States and Iran may have reached its most precarious point yet, with a final American deadline set for April 7 at 8pm Eastern Time (April 8, 5:30am IST) and no sign of a breakthrough on either side.

President Donald Trump has issued what he describes as his last ultimatum to Tehran, demanding that Iran agree to American terms, principally the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Should Iran fail to comply, Trump has threatened an unprecedented military escalation, warning that Iranian civilian infrastructure would face complete demolition by midnight.

Trump has dismissed expert and international legal opinion that deliberately targeting civilian infrastructure constitutes a war crime, justifying the threatened strikes by labelling Iran's leaders as "animals" responsible for killing between 45,000 and 60,000 protesters earlier this year. US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth reinforced the threat, warning that any new wave of strikes would be the largest since operations began.

Trump has simultaneously projected confidence about post-war arrangements. He has declared Iran militarily defeated and floated the idea that the United States, as the "winner," might establish a toll system for cargo ships traversing the Strait of Hormuz, effectively displacing Iran's traditional role in managing the waterway. He acknowledged that widespread destruction would take decades to repair, adding that Washington might eventually assist in reconstruction if a deal is reached.

A highly complex weekend mission by US Special Operations forces, which successfully rescued a downed American airman from deep within Iranian territory, was held up by Trump as proof of American tactical superiority. Negotiations on the US side are being handled by Vice President JD Vance, special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, with Trump characterising Iran as an "active, willing participant" in the talks.

The force of Trump's ultimatum is, however, facing a serious credibility test. Since the original 48-hour deadline issued on March 21 demanding that Iran reopen the strait, the United States has repeatedly extended and revised its position. The deadline was paused on March 23 for what were described as "productive" talks, extended again to April 6, followed by a fresh 48-hour warning on April 4, before being pushed to the current Tuesday evening cutoff.

Tehran has shown no appetite for compromise on its core demands. Iran has firmly rejected a 45-day temporary ceasefire proposal put forward by regional mediators from Pakistan, Egypt and Turkey. Iran fears the United States and Israel would use any temporary lull in fighting to regroup and prepare further strikes.

Instead, Iran has submitted a comprehensive 10-point peace plan through Pakistani intermediaries, insisting on a permanent and absolute end to hostilities. Diplomatic channels have included Vance in communication with Pakistan's army chief Asim Munir and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi speaking directly with Witkoff.

Iran's demands are sweeping. They include the complete lifting of all economic sanctions with legally binding guarantees against their reinstatement, and formal war compensation ratified by both the US Congress and the United Nations. After past experiences, Iran insists on international guarantees. On the Strait of Hormuz, Iran has proposed a new protocol for safe passage, with suggestions that the waterway could fall under joint Iranian-Omani administration. Trump acknowledged the 10-point plan as a "significant step" before dismissing it as "not good enough."

On the ground, the conflict shows no sign of abating. Iran continues to maintain its grip on the Strait of Hormuz, pushing global crude prices up 50 per cent to over $109 a barrel. Recent US and Israeli airstrikes across Iran killed more than 25 people, striking targets including Tehran's Sharif University of Technology, a residential area in Qom, and the South Pars petrochemical complex. Yesterday’s attacks also killed Major General Majid Khademi, head of intelligence for the Revolutionary Guard. Iran, meanwhile, continues to target its Arab Gulf neighbours and Israel. 

Iran says Trump's infrastructure threats are "rude, arrogant rhetoric" and "delusional." The country's central military command has vowed a "much more devastating" and "crushing" response should the United States proceed.