US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has provided the most definitive assessment to date regarding the White House's projected outcome of the ongoing US–Israel military campaign against Iran. Addressing fellow foreign ministers at the G7 summit in France, Rubio expressed confidence in both the military and political resolution of the conflict, asserting that hostilities are expected to conclude well ahead of the timeline anticipated by many governments. He stated that the American military operation was progressing “on or ahead of schedule” and predicted that it would conclude “in a matter of weeks, not months”.
The remarks were clearly intended to reassure allies that the administration of Donald Trump still believes it can contain the war before it becomes a prolonged regional conflict. Even that limited extension has unsettled investors and foreign governments. Markets had already been bracing for a short, intense conflict. The possibility that the war could last longer has revived fears of sustained disruption to global energy supplies and trade routes. Rubio nevertheless insisted that the outcome was not in doubt. Once operations end, he said, the Iranian regime “will be weaker than they’ve been in recent history”, suggesting that Washington believes the war could fundamentally reshape Iran’s strategic position in the Middle East.
One of the most sensitive issues discussed in France was the deployment of additional American forces to the region. Thousands of troops, including Marines and elite airborne units, are expected to be positioned across the Middle East in the coming days. Rubio moved quickly to clarify that this does not signal preparations for a ground invasion. Instead, he described the deployment as a strategic measure designed to give the White House “maximum optionality”. In other words, the troops are meant to provide flexibility in case the conflict escalates or unexpected contingencies emerge. The message to allies was clear: the United States believes it can achieve its objectives through air power, naval dominance and coordinated operations with Israel rather than a large-scale ground war.
Despite the continued military pressure, Rubio confirmed that diplomatic channels remain open. According to him, Washington has received messages from within the Iranian system signalling a willingness to discuss certain issues. However, the process remains uncertain. American officials are still trying to determine who is authorised to speak for Iran, what topics Tehran is actually prepared to negotiate, and whether meaningful talks can begin while the fighting continues. This uncertainty reflects the wider instability inside the Iranian leadership, which has been under immense strain since the conflict began.
Beyond the battlefield, Rubio devoted significant attention to the economic consequences of the war, particularly the crisis surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. Commercial shipping through the strait has collapsed since the offensive began, creating one of the most serious disruptions to global trade in decades. The waterway is responsible for roughly one fifth of the world’s energy shipments, and its closure has already pushed oil prices sharply higher. Rubio warned that the problem will not automatically disappear once the war ends. He suggested that Iran could attempt to establish a permanent toll system for vessels using the strait, something he described as illegal and dangerous for the global economy.
The United Kingdom, he revealed, is already working to build a multinational maritime coalition to ensure that shipping can resume safely. While the United States is prepared to participate, Rubio argued that countries more dependent on the strait’s oil and gas supplies should take the lead. His remarks reflected a broader American strategy of encouraging partners in Europe and Asia to assume greater responsibility for securing global trade routes.
The wider economic consequences of the conflict are becoming increasingly severe. Oil prices have surged past $110 a barrel, raising fears of a renewed inflation shock just as many economies were beginning to recover. Stock markets have reacted sharply. The S&P 500 has fallen significantly, while the Nasdaq Composite has slipped into correction territory. At the same time, the blockade has disrupted exports of critical materials including fertilisers, helium and petrochemical components, threatening supply chains in sectors ranging from agriculture to semiconductor manufacturing.
Amid these pressures, the Trump administration is also signalling a willingness to test diplomatic options. The president has postponed a planned strike on Iranian energy facilities and given Tehran a short deadline to respond to a proposed framework for negotiations. The outline reportedly includes demands for the dismantling of Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile programmes and a permanent end to its control over the strait.
Yet the humanitarian consequences continue to deepen. In Tehran, sustained bombing has damaged residential districts and created a climate of fear among civilians. At the same time, Israeli operations against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon have displaced more than a million people, with international organisations warning that safe areas are rapidly disappearing. Even as Washington insists the conflict is nearing its end, the human and economic costs are mounting with each passing day.