In October 2025, US President Donald Trump was overlooked for the Nobel Peace Prize. On December 5, 2025, FIFA held the draw for the 2026 World Cup (USA-Mexico-Canada) in Washington, DC.
During the event, Trump was presented with the newly created FIFA Peace Prize. Shortly thereafter, Iran—among the first nations to qualify for the tournament—were drawn into Group G alongside Belgium, Egypt and New Zealand.
Currently ranked 20th globally, Team Melli is the second best team in Asia (behind Japan), but, have never progressed past the group stage at a World Cup.
Group G presents a great opportunity (Belgium is ranked ninth, Egypt 31st and New Zealand 85th), especially as even a third-place finish could be sufficient to advance, thanks to the new format.
So, the draw was great news for Iranian football, but the Iranian delegation almost didn't make it into the room. Five of their nine-member party had been denied US visas, including federation president Mehdi Taj. Iran threatened to boycott the ceremony entirely. In the end, a reduced group—led by head coach Amir Ghalenoei—attended. It was an early sign of how fraught things would become.
Three months on, the situation has moved well beyond visa complications, with the World Cup just three months away. Iran is scheduled to play its first two matches at the SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles on June 15 and June 21, and the third in Seattle on June 26.
Whether they actually get there is now genuinely unclear. Taj has said that because of “this attack and its viciousness”, Iran is not really looking at the World Cup with hope.
No formal withdrawal has been submitted to FIFA, but the situation is devolving fast. Trump, asked about the situation, said: “I really don’t care [if Iran plays]. I think Iran is a very badly defeated country. They're running on fumes.”
FIFA has said little. Secretary General Mattias Grafström stated that the football body would “monitor developments”, with the focus on a safe tournament “with everybody participating”. FIFA President Gianni Infantino has not made a public comment since.
However, the issue will need to be addressed at some point, because the financial stakes are significant. Every team that qualifies receives around $1.5 million in preparation money. Teams eliminated at the group stage get $9 million in prize money.
If Iran pulls out, they will forfeit all of this (roughly) $10.5 million. FIFA's regulations also mandate fines: at least 250,000 Swiss francs if Iran withdraws more than 30 days before the tournament starts, rising to at least 500,000 thereafter. In the event of a withdrawal, Iran also risks exclusion from qualifying for the 2030 World Cup.
The rulebook is notably vague. Article 6.7 of FIFA's World Cup regulations states that “FIFA shall decide ... at its sole discretion and take ... action ... deemed necessary”.
If a replacement is needed, it would most likely come from Asia—Iraq or the United Arab Emirates, who were the next best-placed Asian sides after qualifying.
Iraq still has an intercontinental play-off scheduled for March 31. If Iraq fails to win the play-off, but Iran has withdrawn, it could get Iran’s spot.
Given that Iraq (ranked 58th) will be facing either Bolivia (76th) or Suriname (123rd), it is highly likely to win and secure its own World Cup berth, regardless of Iran's outcome.
Now, if Iran drops out but Iraq gets in on its own merits, the spot vacated by Iran could go to the UAE.
In any case, a decision can only be made on April 1.
In 1934, world champions Uruguay had refused to participate in the World Cup in Italy—protesting the lack of European nations willing to travel to their shores for the inaugural World Cup in 1930. England, Scotland, Wales and Ireland opted out of the next edition, saying the British Home Championship (contested between them) was superior to FIFA’s tournament.
In 1938, Uruguay and Argentina boycotted the World Cup after hosting rights were awarded to France and not to South America. The footballing world lost the opportunity to witness the Wunderteam one last time—it was dissolved after Austria was annexed by Nazi Germany ahead of the 1938 World Cup.
In 1950, India squandered its chance to play in the World Cup because the event was not deemed important enough (India had to be careful about its spending at the time). Turkey, too, withdrew citing the financial burden. Meanwhile, Scotland were not sent to the World Cup after they failed to win the Home Championship.
The above mentioned cases cover only teams withdrawing from the tournament itself. There have been instances of qualifiers being boycotted, but there is no precedent of a host nation being at war with a qualified team, with the opening match of the World Cup less than 100 days away.
FIFA’s regulations were clearly written for a world in which such a scenario was presumably considered unlikely. As a result, football’s all-powerful overseer that awarded Trump a Peace Prize is now watching silently as one of Asia’s best footballing nations exchanges missile strikes with Trump and friends. If 1986 was the Diego show, 2026 looks like it could go down as the Donald do-over.