Mojtaba Khamenei, the 56-year-old second son of the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has emerged as the clear front-runner to replace his father as Iran’s new supreme leader. According to multiple reports, the Assembly of Experts has either already selected him or is on the verge of officially announcing his appointment. Three Iranian officials noted that the clerical body held virtual meetings to finalise the decision, though some members expressed reservations that a formal public announcement might expose Mojtaba as a direct target for the US and Israel. During the opening strike of the war that killed his father, Mojtaba also suffered immense personal loss, as his mother, his wife and one of his sons were killed in the bombardment.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) reportedly exerted immense pressure on the clerics to swiftly appoint Mojtaba, pushing to finalise the succession even outside routine procedures if necessary. The IRGC command structure was dealing with internal chaos, disrupted communication and the fear that military personnel were abandoning their posts amid the ongoing airstrikes. They feel that Mojtaba, who is deeply involved with the security apparatus, possesses the skills necessary to lead Iran through this unprecedented crisis. They also warned the clerics that waiting too long could trigger widespread public protests and demonstrations.
While Mojtaba has never held an official position, he was well known in Tehran for being the powerful "gatekeeper" to the Supreme Leader’s office. His close ties with the IRGC and his military service during the Iran-Iraq war add to his chances. In 2019, the United States imposed sanctions on him, noting that he effectively "represented" his father despite lacking a formal title.
However, his potential selection is highly controversial. It represents a father-to-son transition that directly contradicts the Islamic Republic's foundational anti-monarchy principles. Most analysts feel he is a hardliner who supports aggressively suppressing domestic opponents and pursuing a hawkish foreign policy. However, Abdolreza Davari, an Iranian politician close to Mojtaba, told the New York Times that he is actually "extremely progressive" and could act similarly to Saudi Arabia's Mohammed bin Salman.
While Mojtaba dominates the succession discussions, several other figures have been floated as contenders. Ayatollah Ali Reza Arafi is viewed as a more moderate alternative. He was handpicked by Khamenei to head a network of Shia seminaries and was also made a member of the powerful Guardian Council. Hassan Khomeini, the grandson of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the founder of the 1979 Islamic Revolution, is another contender who is said to be associated with the moderate faction, which supports greater engagement with the West. Former president Hassan Rouhani is another relative moderate, but Iran watchers doubt his chances as he was disqualified from the Assembly of Experts in 2024. Ayatollah Mohammad Mehdi Mirbagheri, head of Qom's main Islamic teaching centre, represents a popular alternative for extreme hardliners, having associated with factions advocating for nuclear arms.
The constitutional mechanism for choosing the supreme leader rests entirely with the Assembly of Experts, an 88-member panel of senior clerics and jurists. Members are elected by popular vote to eight-year terms, but only after their candidacies are strictly vetted by the Guardian Council, Iran's constitutional watchdog.
By law, the selected leader must be a qualified, just, and pious Islamic jurist with strong political competence and sound judgment. After private deliberations where candidates are assessed on their religious scholarship and administrative experience, the assembly votes internally, requiring a simple majority to appoint the new leader. This marks only the second time since the 1979 revolution that a new supreme leader is being chosen.