A United States–Iran war could be imminent and, if it comes, would likely unfold as a massive, weeks-long campaign rather than a limited strike, according to some analysts. While much of the American public appears largely “numb” to the prolonged standoff, intelligence assessments and military movements suggest that the administration of President Donald Trump may be closer to full-scale conflict than is widely appreciated.
For months, the White House has pursued what officials describe as a two-track strategy: keeping diplomatic channels open while building overwhelming military pressure around Iran. Senior advisers, including Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, held three-hour talks in Geneva with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi on Tuesday. Both sides publicly claimed that the discussions were constructive. Privately, however, officials concede that deep gaps remain, particularly over what Washington calls non-negotiable red lines on uranium enrichment, ballistic missile development and regional proxy activity.
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Vice President JD Vance has acknowledged that, while some progress was made, Tehran has refused to engage substantively on several of these red lines. There are reports that after the Geneva meeting, the US has issued an ultimatum for Iran to submit a detailed proposal addressing American concerns. The compressed timeline has drawn comparisons with the run-up to “Operation Midnight Hammer” in June 2025, when a similar diplomatic window preceded coordinated military action. Vance has made clear that although Trump prefers a negotiated settlement, he is prepared to conclude that diplomacy has “reached its natural end” if Tehran does not move decisively.
Behind the diplomatic manoeuvres lies an unprecedented military build-up. The United States has assembled two aircraft carrier strike groups, roughly a dozen accompanying warships and hundreds of combat aircraft in and around the Arabian Sea and eastern Mediterranean. Satellite imagery has shown the USS Abraham Lincoln operating approximately 700 kilometres from Iran’s coastline. The USS Gerald R. Ford, the world’s largest aircraft carrier, is en route and expected to join the formation within weeks.
The scale of the deployment extends well beyond symbolic signalling. More than 150 military cargo flights have ferried munitions and specialised systems to regional bases. In a single 24-hour period, around 50 additional fighter aircraft, including advanced stealth platforms, were redeployed to the theatre. Defence analysts note that the depth and sustainability of this force package would allow for a sustained air campaign, potentially generating hundreds of sorties per day over an extended period. This is not the posture of a limited punitive strike but of a force prepared for protracted combat.
Officials and military planners emphasise that any forthcoming conflict would differ markedly from recent, tightly contained operations. It would eclipse the brief January action in Venezuela that led to the seizure of Nicolás Maduro, and would likely exceed the scope of Operation Midnight Hammer that targeted Iran’s underground nuclear infrastructure. The current planning scenarios, according to sources familiar with discussions, envisage a far broader joint United States–Israeli effort aimed not only at nuclear facilities but also at missile sites, command-and-control nodes and elements of the security apparatus underpinning the Iranian regime.
Israel is said to favour a maximalist outcome that would significantly degrade, if not topple, the regime in Tehran. That objective, while not formally endorsed by Washington, shapes the intensity of Israeli lobbying and contingency planning. Former Israeli intelligence officials have warned that the situation is volatile enough to warrant extraordinary caution.
Meanwhile, the timeline appears to be shrinking. One adviser to the President privately estimated a “90 per cent chance” of kinetic action within weeks, describing Trump as increasingly frustrated. Israeli officials, for their part, are preparing for the possibility of hostilities erupting within days. In response to the American build-up, Iran has conducted joint naval manoeuvres with Russia in the Sea of Oman and staged exercises in the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz.
As one senior adviser bluntly observed, all signs suggest that if diplomacy fails, the trigger may soon be pulled.