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Rafah reopening promises relief for Gaza, but unfolding violence exposes the ceasefire’s tenuous foundations

Rafah is Gaza’s only land crossing not routed through Israel

Israel has announced plans to reopen the Rafah border crossing between Gaza and Egypt from today, ending a ban that has lasted for nearly two years. The move is part of the second phase of a United States-brokered ceasefire agreement intended to bring an end to the war between Israel and Hamas. The announcement came amid deadly Israeli airstrikes on Gaza and renewed accusations of ceasefire violations from both sides, raising doubts about whether the agreement can hold.

Rafah is Gaza’s only land crossing not routed through Israel and has long been a critical point for humanitarian aid and civilian movement. Israeli officials have made clear that the reopening will be tightly controlled. The Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories said movement through Rafah would be strictly limited, requiring coordination with Egypt, prior Israeli security clearance and supervision by a European Union monitoring mission. Screening and identification are to take place along a designated corridor under Israeli military control, reinforcing Israel’s insistence that it will retain oversight even as the crossing resumes operations.

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Hamas has demanded that Rafah be opened fully and without restrictions, arguing that anything less undermines the spirit of the ceasefire. Israel, however, has rejected that demand. Under current plans, around 150 Palestinians a day are expected to be allowed to leave Gaza. For many, particularly those in urgent need of medical treatment abroad, the reopening represents a lifeline after months of isolation and the near-destruction of Gaza’s health system. Even so, aid agencies warn that the scale of movement envisaged falls far short of what is required to address the territory’s humanitarian emergency.

The second phase of the ceasefire was formally triggered last week with the return of the remains of Ran Gvili, the last Israeli captive held in Gaza. Brokered under the administration of US President Donald Trump, the agreement sets out an ambitious and highly contested political roadmap. It envisages the disarmament of Hamas, the formation of a technocratic Palestinian administration and, eventually, the transfer of authority to a so-called Board of Peace staffed by US appointees. Each of these elements faces deep resistance on the ground, particularly amid continuing military operations.

That resistance was evident in the violence that flared just days before Rafah was due to reopen. Israeli airstrikes hit Gaza City and Khan Younis yesterday, killing at least 30 Palestinians, according to local authorities. Among the targets were a police station in the Sheikh Radwan neighbourhood, a residential apartment and a tent camp sheltering displaced people. Civilians, police officers and detainees were reported among the dead. One strike on a tent camp sparked a fire that killed seven members of a single family, images of which circulated widely and drew condemnation from humanitarian groups.

Israel said the attacks were a direct response to Hamas violations of the ceasefire, claiming that eight armed men were identified emerging from a tunnel in Rafah, an area under Israeli military control. The Israel Defense Forces said they had targeted commanders and a weapons facility, accusing militant groups of operating from civilian sites and exploiting public institutions. Hamas rejected the claims, condemning the strikes as a “brutal war of genocide” and a flagrant breach of the truce, and accusing Israel of using security pretexts to continue military pressure.

The humanitarian situation in Gaza remains catastrophic. Since the war began in October 2023, more than 71,600 people have been killed, according to Palestinian officials. Even after the ceasefire came into effect on October 10, Gaza’s health ministry says Israeli strikes have killed between 490 and 500 people. Much of the enclave’s infrastructure remains inoperable, with electricity, water and sanitation systems barely functioning as winter storms batter tent camps and damaged buildings. A United Nations commission has previously accused Israel of committing genocide in Gaza, an allegation Israel strongly denies.

Egypt and Qatar, who lead the talks between the rivals, have condemned yesterday’s strikes, warning that such provocative acts would derail the ceasefire. Hamas has urged the guarantors, along with the United States and Turkey, to pressure Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to adhere to the deal. At the same time, contentious debates over Gaza’s future continue, including presentations by Jared Kushner outlining redevelopment plans that feature high-rise, futuristic projects along the coast, proposals that critics say are detached from the realities on the ground.

Against this backdrop, the reopening of Rafah stands as both a symbol of tentative progress and a reminder of how easily the ceasefire could unravel. 

A truck carrying humanitarian aid at the Rafah border on the Egyptian side | Reuters