With the term ‘TACO’—short for ‘Trump Again Chickens Out’—garnering traction in the US amid rising domestic political pressure for the President, the big and inevitable question again is “Will he, won’t he” mount an attack on Iran?
Not that Mr Trump is entirely averse to the idea. He has done it in the past including the most recent one in Venezuela.
On the face of it, the deployment of US military forces in the troubled West Asian region is certainly indicative of impending action.
The Nimitz-class USS Abraham Lincoln is reported to have stationed itself in Omani waters after departing from the South China region, while the positional deployment of the USS George HW Bush carrier strike group remains unclear after it departed from Norfolk on January 13. Some reports say it is headed towards West Asia.
Amid this backdrop, it is rather an inevitable fact that the Iran trouble will be discussed in the key India-League of Arab States (LAS) meeting that will take place in New Delhi on Saturday (January 31).
Set up in Cairo in 1945, the LAS comprises 22 member states from the Arab world, including countries from North Africa and West Asia. Its mandate is to “strengthen and coordinate the political, cultural, economic and social programmes of its members, and to mediate disputes among them or between them and third parties”.
The first India-Arab Foreign Ministers’ Meeting was held in Manama, Bahrain in 2016, and had adopted five verticals as areas for collaboration—economy, education, energy, media, and culture.
While trade between energy-deficient India and energy-surplus LAS stands at over $240 billion, bilateral trade in hydrocarbons is valued at more than $107 billion. The LAS supplies 95 per cent of India’s LPG requirement, 60 per cent of LNG and 47 per cent of crude oil needs.
One of the most relevant points of discussion would possibly focus on the fears and concerns that the LAS would have in the aftermath of Iran targeting Arab states after possible US action on Iran. Iran has already vowed retaliation, pointing out that “its finger is on the trigger”.
While Iran has an entire arsenal of ballistic missiles and drones of varied ranges, it can target US bases and forces in Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Jordan, Oman, Bahrain and Iraq.
The direct attack scenario by Iran, the spillover effect, and a rebound impact of an ensuing conflict would add substantially to Arab concerns.
Therefore, an attempt to understand India’s position would ostensibly be part of the New Delhi meeting on Saturday.