The US armada, led by aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group (CSG), entered the Middle Eastern waters on Monday, ramping up tensions in the region.
The carrier, along with three Arleigh Burke guided missile destroyers escorting it (and usually a fast-attack nuclear submarine), is currently located in the Indian Ocean, a U.S. Navy official confirmed to The War Zone. The elements of the Lincoln CSG were deployed to the region after protests erupted in Iran against the Islamic regime. The arrival of the armada has sparked speculation that a US attack may be imminent.
Meanwhile, Iran is also preparing for a war with the US. A report by Israeli media i24 cites Intelligence assessments from Persian Gulf states that indicate that Iran has reinforced its southern coastline with units from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). The deployments are concentrated along strategic areas of the Persian Gulf, including the Strait of Hormuz. This is seen as an attempt to counter any potential US ground operation.
Iran has reportedly positioned IRGC and Basij units along its more than 2,400-kilometer coastline, with extra force on key locations such as Qeshm Island and the port city of Bandar Abbas. Besides, it has also deployed advanced coastal defense systems, including anti-ship missiles and Ghadir-class submarines, aimed at detecting and deterring maritime threats in the Persian Gulf.
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Iran has already warned that the United States would not be able to mount a surprise or decisive blow against the country. The Iranian state media quoted a senior unnamed official who claimed that the maritime environment surrounding Iran is indigenous and is being watched by its armed forces. The official said Iran’s armed forces track hostile activity before it reaches the operational stage. “Any threat against Iran’s national security is being closely monitored, and appropriate decisions will be taken at the proper time,” he said.
While the Iranian military isn’t equipped enough to tackle the US armada, analysts believe the force buildup is also believed to be designed to enable Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz if necessary.
According to Cameron Chell, CEO of drone manufacturer Draganfly, Iran could use low-cost unmanned aerial systems that could pose a threat to the US armada, including the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group. “If hundreds are launched in a short period of time, some of them will almost certainly reach their targets,” he said, adding that Iran’s strategy of pairing inexpensive drones with low-cost warheads creates an effective asymmetric threat.
Trump’s plan
Unconfirmed reports hint that Trump has devised a new plan to tackle Iran, which includes exploring the possibility of imposing a naval blockade on Iran that would prevent it from exporting oil. The president has already taken such a step against the Maduro regime in Venezuela, and a few weeks later, Trump launched an operation to capture President Maduro and his wife. “Among the options under review is a maritime cordon designed to stop Iran’s oil exports at sea,” according to Israeli media i24.
The advantages of such an operation are that even if the protests have died down, massive economic pressure can encourage protests and once again shake the regime from within.
The US Air Force has begun a large-scale exercise in the Middle East, and the military deployment in the region is one of the largest since the 12-day war last June. American sources claim that operational readiness is very high, with preparations for an attack on Iran dependent only on President Trump's decision. However, the U.S. Air Force Central (AFCENT) claims that the war drill “Agile Spartan” is part of its regular exercise schedule and not in response to current tensions, but analysts argue that the timing of the drill is hard to ignore.