Syria’s ministry of defence announced a 15-day extension to the ceasefire with the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces, beginning at 11.00 pm local time on Saturday, only hours after the previous four-day agreement had lapsed. The SDF confirmed its commitment to the extended pause, saying it was intended to support de-escalation, protect civilians and create conditions for stability. Yet it is almost clear that the ceasefire is driven by worries about the breakout of Islamic State prisoners rather than any desire for political reconciliation.
At the heart of the extension is a United States-led operation to transfer Islamic State prisoners from Syria to Iraq. Washington has grown increasingly alarmed about the fate of thousands of detainees held in facilities that were destabilised by the recent Syrian government offensive. American officials fear that continued fighting or the collapse of local security arrangements could lead to mass escapes and a revival of Islamic State networks.
Under the current plan, the US military aims to move up to 7,000 Islamic State-linked prisoners from detention centres in northeastern Syria to facilities under Iraqi control. US Central Command has already confirmed the transfer of roughly 120 to 150 detainees to secure locations in Iraq, describing the operation as a necessary precaution amid deepening uncertainty on the ground. The urgency is heightened by discussions in Washington about a possible full US withdrawal from Syria, which would leave the detention system in the northeast dangerously exposed.
The ceasefire comes after what Kurdish sources describe as a fateful January, during which the strategic balance swung decisively in favour of Damascus caused largely by a swift and coordinated offensive by the Syrian army, recapturing territory held by the SDF. In no time, the Kurds lost key oil fields, power infrastructure and detention facilities, undermining both their economic base and leverage in negotiations. These losses have dramatically weakened the SDF’s bargaining position at a moment when its external backing is also eroding.
That erosion is most visible in the apparent shift in US policy. The Trump administration has aligned itself more closely with the new leadership in Damascus, quietly urging the SDF to reach an accommodation with the Syrian government. With the loss of Washington’s support, the Kurds have lost their political cover and the ability to stand up to a resurgent Syrian army. Subsequently, they are now negotiating from a position of vulnerability, knowing fully well that further resistance could lead to their total collapse.
Meanwhile, the basic concerns that triggered the latest round of hostilities remain unresolved. A so-called historic agreement signed in March 2025, which envisaged the integration of around 10,000 SDF fighters into state structures, stalled after months of non-implementation. That failure ultimately paved the way for renewed violence.
Damascus insists on a highly centralised model in which SDF members are absorbed into the national army and police as individuals, with no recognition of the force as a distinct entity. Kurdish leaders, by contrast, have long argued for a decentralised Syria that guarantees meaningful local autonomy. Given their current losing streak, they face a stark choice between prolonging a losing battle or accepting a deal that would significantly reduce their clout.
On the humanitarian front, however, the ceasefire has brought a measure of relief. Syrian state media reported the release of 126 boys under the age of 18 from al-Aqtan prison near Raqqa, where they had been held in a facility recently captured by government forces. Their reunion with their families was welcomed, yet tensions remain high across the northeast. The SDF has accused government forces of using the truce to reposition troops and equipment, fuelling fears of a renewed escalation once the pause expires. The advance has also forced the SDF to withdraw from sensitive sites such as the al-Hol camp, home to the families of suspected Islamic State members.
Among the key regional actors, Turkey has expressed satisfaction with the Kurdish setback and the likely collapse of their self-rule along its borders. However, Kurdish communities abroad are clearly unhappy, taking out demonstrations, including large rallies in Europe.