Russian President Vladimir Putin has yet to issue a public reaction to the anti-regime protests rocking Iran, but the aftermath of the unrest will likely be felt in Moscow, according to political analysts. Tehran is a close ally of Moscow in its war against Ukraine, and both countries have engaged with each other constantly on several global issues, including nuclear diplomacy.
The unrest in Iran, which comes close on the heels of the Venezuela issue, has made Moscow nervous, according to political strategist Mikhail Sheitelman. The analyst said Russia was already hurting from the loss of Venezuela and its tankers, which the US detained. This represents a huge setback to the Russian elite, who lost billions of dollars in Venezuelan business.
Sheitelman claims that Trump’s warning that the US could intervene in the Iranian unrest meant that Russia could lose another ally. "There's a chance a revolution will break out in Tehran, and the Americans will participate. If the regime collapses, the US will control both Venezuelan and Iranian oil. There's no need to reset anything in Iran; everything's working; all that's left is to send their contractors there. The Americans are now entering Venezuela. Trump has a meeting scheduled with oil companies regarding billions of dollars in investments there," Sheitelman told Ukrainian media Channel 24.
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Trump taking control of Iranian oil means Russian oil becomes unnecessary, the analyst believes. “If the United States succeeds in exerting influence over Iran, the Shahed drones Russia receives from Tehran could change their destination. If Iran is under US control, Iranian kamikaze drones will no longer be Russian,” he said, stating that one cannot rule out the possibility of the drones flying from Ukraine to Russia.
Theoretically, the risks for the Russians are such. They've already lost Venezuela, and the tankers too. Putin refused to sign the peace agreement, so he missed out on everything,” Sheitelman said.
Another political scientist, Taras Zagorodniy, also believes that the events in Iran could impact the "axis of evil," particularly China and Russia.
The destablisation in the Middle East means a rise in oil prices,“ Zagorodniy said on Channel 24. “If the US takes control of Iranian oil exports, it will put China under pressure from all sides. After the situation in Venezuela, the Americans will control half of the world's oil supply. And if Iran is added, he believes OPEC+ as an organization will be dead,” the scientist from Ukraine claimed.
“It will be a huge setback for Russia if the US continues to exert pressure and take away oil market share. This will be a huge blow, destabilising the Middle East, putting pressure on China and Russia, because the latter will have no tools left to harm the US or other normal countries,” Zagorodniy stated.