The Islamic regime in Iran is facing an existential threat as public protests intensify. While the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has reportedly called on his security officials to brutally quell the unrest, signs are that the protests are only gaining strength and could even cause the collapse of the regime.
There are also questions about who will take over Iran if the regime dies and how its final days would be, if it were to happen.
Iran watchers predict there is still a possibility that the Islamists could hold on to leadership of the country by opting to replace the elite faces with new ones. Behnam Ben Taleblu, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, has warned Western governments against backing a cosmetic transition that merely reshuffles elites.
"One thing I fear is the Western temptation for a Maduro-type or Egypt-type model," he told Fox News, hinting at how the current regime could retain power under new leadership. "That will only be playing musical chairs at the top and will not provide the Iranian people a pathway for meaningful change," he said. Taleblu said it won’t be easy for Iran’s opposition to translate the street protests into an organised political power before the security forces reassert control.
Option 1: Reza Pahlavi
The name that has been ringing through the streets of Iran, Reza Pahlavi, the Crown Prince in exile and son of the last Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, is the popular choice as the next ruler. An exile royal court announced Pahlavi as the new Shah on October 31, 1980, after the death of his father, who fled the country during the coup in 1978.
Though Pahlavi lived outside of Iran for nearly 50 years, he has been at the forefront of the current unrest, galvanising protests. It was on his call that millions took to the streets last Thursday to protest against the regime.
Pahlavi has again called on protesters to continue their street demonstrations for two more nights and seize city centers, while urging energy and transport workers to start nationwide strikes. As he tries to position himself as a key figure in his homeland's future, Pahlavi has informed Iranians that he is planning to return home soon.
He has also exhorted the idea that Iran could become a constitutional monarchy with an elected ruler rather than a hereditary one, but said it was the choice of Iranians.
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But it won’t be a cake walk. He and his family have no connection with modern-day Iran after having lived in the US for the last four decades. Iran has a large youth population, with roughly one-third of its people aged 15-29, who do not know Pahlavi.
His support for Israel during the 12-day war could also work against him. Pahlavi met Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Israel, and the country has supported him in turn. As for US President Donald Trump, he is yet to endorse or meet Pahlavi. Trump has reportedly suggested that he is waiting to see the result of the protests before he backs an opposition leader.
Option 2: Mariam Rajavi of Mujahedin-e Khalq
Another prominent name is that of Maryam Rajavi, leader of the long-standing opposition movement Mujahedin-e Khalq, also known as the People's Mojahedin Organization of Iran.
Though she has received backing from some senior US political figures, including former Vice President Mike Pence and former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, Rajavi is opposed to foreign intervention. In an opinion piece that appeared in the Telegraph, she said the regime, due to 47 years of dictatorship, corruption, and bloodshed, has reached a dead end. “Those who pinned their hopes on outside military intervention have been discredited. The real solution lies in the organised resistance and the people’s uprising. There is no need for foreign military intervention or financial and arms assistance. Regime change is solely the responsibility of the Iranian people,” she opined.
She has also claimed to Fox News that the People’s Mojahedin Organization of Iran and its "resistance units" as the core force behind recent uprisings, claiming they have played a decisive role in organising protests and confronting security forces at the cost of heavy casualties. However, she denies seeking power for herself, instead proposing a six-month provisional period following the regime’s overthrow, followed by free elections for a constituent assembly to draft a new constitution for a democratic, secular republic.
Option 3: Military takeover
The lack of a political opposition, even within the jails, have left Iran with no other power centres. Naturally, experts are skeptical that Iran’s next political leadership would emerge from within the country’s prison system.
That’s why some believe the Iranian military could take over the country. Experts cite historical precedents, including in Egypt, where the military stepped in amid unrest, as examples.
Benny Sabti, an Iran expert at Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies, told Fox News that a military-led transition cannot be ruled out, but would be fraught. "IRGC generals could theoretically attempt a coup," Sabti said, stressing that Iran’s military institutions are not monolithic. While the IRGC is an ideological force, the regular army is more professional and nationally oriented.
There are also reports of quiet dissent within the military already, and if they step in, there wouldn’t be democracy but military rule, which could also trigger a messy civil war with the Revolutionary Guard.