When Cristiano Ronaldo scored his 958th career goal, there was no celebration. To the uninitiated, it may have seemed strange. After all, he is only 42 goals away from that magical mark of 1,000. But, as he ran to collect the ball from the net and get it to the halfway line for restart, it was evident that he still cares more about the team winning than personal milestones. Unfortunately, on January 8, Al-Nassr could not add to that Ronaldo penalty and lost, 2-1, to Al-Qadsiah.
It was the second straight defeat for the team and put them four points behind Riyadh rivals Al-Hilal in the title race. The derby match between the top two, on January 12, could now be a final opportunity for Nassr to keep their title challenge alive, despite the fact that there will be 20 matches left. This is because overcoming a seven point deficit at this stage of the campaign seems too tough, even with the elite mentality of the team’s talisman and the motivational effect that will have on other players.
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The form of the two giants reveals a sharp contrast in momentum. Al-Hilal enters the derby on the back of a 10-match winning streak, a run that has seen them combine defensive solidity with a multi-faceted attack. Under Simone Inzaghi, Al-Hilal has developed a system that does not rely on a focal point. Recent scoring contributions of Sergej Milinković-Savić, Rúben Neves and Darwin Núñez showed a squad depth that remains effective even during rotations. Al-Hilal’s unbeaten record this season—11 wins and two draws—is underpinned by a midfield that excels in ball retention and defensive transition.
Nassr, meanwhile, is grappling with a sudden loss of consistency. After taking the full 30 points from their first 10 matches, Jorge Jesus’s side has only secured one point from the last nine available. They continue to lead in terms of goal difference (26 to Al-Hilal’s 23) because of their attacking exploits in the first 10 matches, but defence has looked increasingly shaky. The loss to Al-Qadsiah, currently fourth, highlighted a recurring issue: an inability to convert statistical dominance into results. Nassr had an expected goals (xG) of 2.27, but was undone by individual errors in defence.
The difference between the top two is obvious: Nassr may have the higher offensive ceiling, but Al-Hilal operates more efficiently, rarely dropping points even when not performing at their best.
Squad depth and injury management will be key for the gruelling second half of the season. Al-Hilal has demonstrated a superior ability to absorb absences; even as they navigate a busy schedule, their recruitment strategy suggests a desire for constant reinforcement. Nassr’s depth is more top-heavy. While the attack—Ronaldo, João Félix, Kingsley Coman and Sadio Mané (currently away at AFCON)—remains the most potent in Asia, the team’s reliance on these individuals is evident. With centre-back Mohamed Simakan missing with a torn thigh muscle, the defence is vulnerable against energetic teams.
Looking at the remaining fixtures, the end of the season is remarkably different for both clubs. Al-Hilal has transformed the Kingdom Arena into a fortress and their remaining schedule includes key home fixtures. As as result, they are expected to be capable of holding on to a lead at the top of the table. Nassr, on the contrary, faces a treacherous run of away matches in February and March. To stay in the race, they must find a way to replicate their early-season away form, such as their 5-0 victory over thrid-placed Al-Taawoun. With the added pressure of AFC Champions League Two knockout stages, the physical toll on Al-Nassr’s veteran core will be a significant variable.
In the Riyadh derby, the tactical battle will set the tone for the next four months. Al-Hilal’s discipline in midfield usually allows them to dictate the pace, whereas Nassr thrives in high-transition, chaotic games where their individual quality can shine. If Nassr can secure a win away, they not only reduce the gap to a point but shatter Al-Hilal’s aura of invincibility, thereby shifting the pressure back to the leaders.
Ultimately, the title will be won the team that best manages the fixtures where fatigue can lead to dropped points. Al-Hilal’s trajectory suggests they have the personnel to navigate this; Nassr’s season depends on proving that their slump was a temporary lapse rather than a sign of decline. Most importantly, there is no margin for error for Ronaldo and Co. This season could very well go down as a missed opportunity for Nassr. But the history of football is not written in ink; rather, it is in the footprints of the greats. And Ronaldo isn’t done yet.