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From oil to orbits: The Gulf's strategic leap into space

Gulf space ambitions represent a strategic pivot, embedding space capabilities within broader agendas for economic diversification, autonomy, and post-hydrocarbon industrial policy

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The Gulf’s growing engagement with outer space is no longer a symbolic pursuit driven  by influence but a strategic instrument of economic diversification that connects security imperatives, data sovereignty, and post-hydrocarbon industrial policy. Space capabilities  are increasingly becoming embedded within broader development agendas, supporting technological upgrading, innovation in defence-adjacent sectors, and even new narratives of national modernity and tourism. At the same time, the reduction in launch costs and the proliferation of small satellites have lowered barriers to entry, allowing Gulf states to invest in space programs that align with their long-term capital horizons and state-led development models. Further, space participation has acquired clear geopolitical significance, serving as a marker of strategic status and signalling intent to shape emerging norms in a highly sensitive and competitive domain. As more countries establish national space agencies, Gulf states seek both visibility and influence. In this context, the sustainability of Gulf space ambitions will depend on how effectively space assets are integrated into power projection, transforming technological capability into enduring strategic advantage.

The Gulf’s space sector is increasingly evolving into a dual-use ecosystem in which civil, commercial, and security objectives intersect. Satellite communications, earth observation, and geospatial analytics are steadily becoming integral to everyday life, along with other supporting functions such as water and energy infrastructure monitoring, urban and transport planning, disaster management, maritime awareness, and supply-chain optimisation. At the same time, these capabilities will help in strengthening surveillance, intelligence, and situational awareness, highlighting the inseparability of civilian and security reasonings in space development. As this trajectory deepens, Gulf states are likely to prioritise sovereign “space-as-a-service” public utilities that deliver tangible domestic benefits while anchoring defensible commercial niches.

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has emerged as the regional pioneer in space, leveraging extensive international cooperation to build a self-reliant ecosystem that focuses on human spaceflight, deep space exploration, satellite manufacturing, and AI-driven geospatial analytics, while simultaneously investing in national training and youth programmes.

In the case of Saudi Arabia, driven by Vision 2030, is rapidly scaling its space ambitions through diversified global partnerships, prioritising satellite localisation, earth observation, and human capital development as it tries to position itself as a regional space powerhouse. Beyond these two nations, other GCC nations are adopting selective strategies wherein Bahrain has partnered with the UAE and India to build satellite capabilities and training ecosystems, while Oman is pursuing launch and infrastructure ambitions through sovereign investments and foreign collaboration. Qatar and Kuwait, meanwhile, are advancing their space objectives through targeted partnerships and national initiatives. All this indicates a region-wide shift towards differentiated but complementary roles within the Gulf’s emerging space ecosystem.

However, there are challenges too. Technological interdependence in sensitive sectors can expose space programmes to alliance politics, export controls, and regulatory resistances, potentially forcing the nations to make difficult choices over supply chains, launch access, payload integration, and data governance. The Gulf space ambitions are being outlined as the basis of a broader ecosystem that links state-led programmes, commercial ventures, emerging spaceports, etc. Flagship missions and high-visibility projects will serve as signalling projecting continuity of capital, technological ambition, and risk taking in the post-oil era.

Analytically, Gulf's future strategy can be interpreted as a transition from symbolic space activity to a three-layer model of space power: (1) commercial scale driven by constellations, analytics, and finance ecosystems; (2) sovereign capability rooted in national institutions and regulation; and (3) regional leverage exercised through partnerships, standards-setting, and service exports. While the largest states are best positioned to advance across all three layers, smaller Gulf countries can still play substantial roles by specialising in regulatory frameworks, ground infrastructure, niche payloads, and sovereign data governance.

Ultimately, the success of the Gulf’s space engagement will be assessed based on institutional maturity. So, the decisive challenge lies in translating ambition into resilient innovation systems supported by coherent regulation, skilled human capital, and regional coordination, so that space assets become enduring instruments of structural influence rather than fleeting symbols of technological modernity.

Overall, the Gulf’s entry into the space domain reflects a strategic recalibration rather than a technological spectacle, embedding space capabilities within broader agendas of diversification, autonomy, and regional influence. The long-term impact of these ambitions will depend on institutional strength, regulatory coherence, and human capital development, as well as the ability to navigate geopolitical constraints. If effectively integrated, space can emerge as a durable pillar of the Gulf’s post-oil future, translating technological capability into sustained structural and strategic power.

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