The split within the alliance fighting the Houthis movement in Yemen appears to have worsened, raising fears of a new conflict on top of the country’s long civil war. The crisis began after the Southern Transitional Council (STC), a separatist group backed by the United Arab Emirates, took control of two large and important eastern governorates, putting the STC on a collision course with Saudi Arabia and could end up helping the Iran-backed Houthis.
Earlier this month, STC forces carried out a fast military operation and seized the governorates of Hadramout and al-Mahra. Hadramout is rich in oil, while al-Mahra borders Oman and includes key land and sea routes. Together they make up almost 50 per cent of Yemen’s total land area. They also contain the country’s biggest oil reserves and several important ports.
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During the advance, STC fighters took over military bases, government offices and oil facilities. In many places, they met little resistance from troops loyal to Yemen’s Internationally Recognised Government. This showed how weak and divided the government’s forces have become after years of war.
The STC is led by Aidarous al-Zubaidi, who wants to restore an independent South Yemen. South Yemen existed as a separate state from 1967 until it united with the north in 1990. Although al-Zubaidi is officially a member of Yemen’s Presidential Leadership Council, his forces often act on their own and ignore orders from the central government.
The STC leaders defended their actions by saying they were trying to stop security threats in the east. They accused the Muslim Brotherhood-linked Islah party and al-Qaeda of increasing their influence in the area. They also said that controlling local oil and gas resources was vital for the southern independence cause. By taking Hadramout and al-Mahra, the STC has now extended its control across almost all of the territory that once made up South Yemen, bringing it closer to its long-term goal of breaking away.
Saudi Arabia reacted angrily. On Christmas morning, the Saudi Foreign Ministry released a statement calling the STC operation an unjustified escalation that harmed the Yemeni people. Riyadh demanded that STC forces withdraw immediately and hand over the captured bases and territory to the National Shield Forces, a militia created and supported by Saudi Arabia.
Hadramout is especially important to Saudi Arabia because it shares a long border with the kingdom, stretching about 700km, and there are family ties between people on both sides of the border. When the STC refused to pull back, Saudi Arabia began moving large numbers of troops towards the border areas of al-Wadeeah and al-Abr. Reports suggest around 20,000 soldiers were deployed, including well-paid fighters from the National Shield Forces.
There have also been reports that Saudi Arabia threatened to carry out air strikes on STC positions if they did not withdraw. At the same time, Riyadh pulled its troops out of Aden, Yemen’s temporary capital and an STC stronghold, aiming to isolate the STC.
The brewing crisis marks the growing discord between Saudi Arabia and the UAE, the two main backers of anti-Houthi forces. The UAE has given the STC strong military and financial backing. Emirati officials reportedly only spoke about reducing tensions after the STC had already completed its takeover.
These rivalries are not limited to Yemen. In Sudan, Saudi Arabia and the UAE support opposing sides in another brutal civil war. Some analysts believe the STC move in eastern Yemen may have had quiet approval from Abu Dhabi as a way to gain leverage over Riyadh, especially after disagreements linked to Sudan and competition for investment from the United States.
Local reactions in Hadramout have been mixed. The region has its own strong identity and has not traditionally supported the STC. Some residents favour independence, but others worry about the STC rule and prefer either more autonomy within a united Yemen or a federal system. There have been reports that parts of the population see the STC advance as an invasion, with claims of expulsions of northerners and human rights abuses.
The Internationally Recognised Government has been further weakened by the crisis. It already struggles to provide basic services or stabilise the collapsing currency. President Rashad al-Alimi, who is backed by Saudi Arabia, has been unable to stop his authority from shrinking. Many National Shield units reportedly collapsed or withdrew during the initial STC advance.
This civil strife has come as a big relief for the Houthis, which controls Sanaa and much of northern Yemen. It could give it a chance to target areas like Marib or escalate attacks on shipping in the Red Sea. Such attacks have already disrupted global trade.
The United States is now under pressure to help calm the situation between its two key Gulf allies. Saudi Arabia has asked Washington for help in easing the crisis. US officials are expected to speak with both Saudi and Emirati leaders to prevent direct conflict between their partners. Meanwhile, the STC is trying to win US support by presenting itself as a force against terrorism and by showing interest in joining the Abraham Accords.