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Trump's Middle East breakthrough: What's next for Gaza after Israel-Hamas peace deal?

The initial phase of the agreement is set to bring about a ceasefire and an exchange of hostages and prisoners

Displaced Palestinians walk along the coastal road, backdropped by smoke rising into the sky after an Israeli military strike in Gaza City | AP

Israel and Hamas have agreed to a peace deal proposed by President Donald Trump to end the war in Gaza and exchange Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners, two years after Hamas attacked Israel on October 7, 2023. Trump confirmed on social media early this morning that both parties had committed to the first phase of his plan, which includes an Israeli troop withdrawal to a mutually agreed line.

Israeli officials, however, made no immediate mention of any troop pullback in their initial statements. The initial phase of the agreement is set to bring about a ceasefire and an exchange of hostages and prisoners. Among the key points, Hamas has committed to releasing 48 Israeli hostages, including 20 who are believed to be alive. These individuals could be freed as early as the weekend. The remaining 28 are reported to be deceased, though no further information has been given regarding the return of their remains, leaving families in anguish and without closure. 

In return, Israel will release at least 1,700 Palestinian prisoners. Hamas has submitted a list of detainees, and among the nearly 2,000 names considered as part of Trump’s 20-point plan, around 250 are reportedly serving life sentences. Israeli officials have described this aspect of the deal as deeply difficult to accept.

The agreement also allows for the supply of humanitarian aid into Gaza. The ceasefire is to begin as the hostages are released, and Israel will begin withdrawing its troops to a specified line that reportedly accounts for 51 percent of the Gaza Strip. Israel currently controls around 80 percent of the territory, so this partial withdrawal indicates that full military disengagement will not occur during this phase. The withdrawal is expected to proceed in tandem with the hostage release. The agreement is due to be formally signed in Sharm el-Sheikh at midday today, with implementation beginning over the weekend.

Trump’s role in securing the agreement has been widely credited, particularly his close coordination with regional actors and pressure applied on both sides. His administration’s efforts were led by Jared Kushner, who was previously involved in the Abraham Accords, and Steve Witkoff, Trump’s special envoy. Both Kushner and Witkoff met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to draft the 20-point proposal underpinning the deal. 

Trump thanked the leaders of Qatar, Egypt and Turkey for their roles in the mediation process, which culminated in talks hosted by Egyptian President Abdel Fatah El-Sisi at the Sharm el-Sheikh resort. Qatar’s Prime Minister and the head of Turkish intelligence were also central figures in the negotiations. Trump hinted at a possible visit to the region in the coming days.

Prime Minister Netanyahu welcomed the agreement, describing it as a significant moment for Israel and expressing gratitude to Trump and his team. He also confirmed that the Israeli cabinet would be convened to formally approve the deal. The United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres welcomed the deal and called for full compliance from both Israel and Hamas. He also demanded immediate delivery of humanitarian supplies.

The next challenges include the disarmament of Hamas and setting up a governance structure for Gaza. Israel is unlikely to permit Hamas to retain its weapons or remain in power in Gaza. Such concerns could hurt the long-term viability of the peace process and any potential political resolution.

Israeli air and ground operations in Gaza have not yet stopped completely. Although some reports indicated a slight reduction in intensity, the attacks are going on. Hamas has put the responsibility on Trump and the international mediators to make sure that Israel honoured all clauses of the agreement. Absolute mistrust between the two sides and the historical nature of the conflict would mean that the full implementation of the deal will face significant hurdles in the days ahead.