As ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz resumes cautiously after the US and Iran agreed on a two-week ceasefire that is already being tested, experts say that global energy flows could take months to return to pre-war levels.
The first two ships that transited the strait were bulk carriers—the Greek-owned NJ Earth (IMO: 9229996), carrying the flag of Saint Kitts and Nevis and the Liberian-flagged Daytona Beach (IMO: 9615054), as per data from ship tracker Kpler.
This comes after Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi had said that ships would be permitted safe passage through the strait for a two-week period "via coordination with Iran's armed forces and with due consideration of technical limitations".
Despite US President Donald Trump saying that the US would help with the "traffic buildup" around the Strait of Hormuz—which has about 800 tankers waiting on either side to pass through—an expert noted that “most operators appear to be holding back", as per a New York Times report, citing Kpler analyst Dimitris Ampatzidis.
"Most operators appear to be holding back," he added.
The report noted that this situation could change if shipping operators could be convinced that the promised safe passage would stay safe, and that the risks of attacks were truly reduced.
Still, global energy flows are expected to take a long time to return to pre-war levels, as repairing energy infrastructure damaged in the war is said to be a slow, expensive process.
The Hormuz toll uncertainty
Amid this uncertainty around the ceasefire, the issue of Iran's desire to impose tolls on ships transiting the waterway has also come to the fore, and is likely to be another point of contention that will strain the ceasefire.
The tolls, which could generate tens of billions of dollars per year for the nation in control of them, are said to be an important demand put forth in a clause inside its 10-point plan for the ceasefire that Trump has called "workable".
Trump has also earlier signalled openness to the idea of tolls being imposed on ships transiting the strait, with a caveat—he was in favour of the US levying the tolls, as he claimed that it had won the war.
"Why shouldn't we (charge tolls) ... They are militarily defeated ... We have a concept," he had told reporters much before the US-Iran ceasefire.
However, Oman on Wednesday has altogether rejected the idea of tolls being imposed on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz.
Oman’s Transport Minister also declared that Muscat had entered into agreements ensuring that vessels transiting the strait would not be subject to any fees.