The Congress appears headed for a third consecutive defeat in the Assam Assembly elections, clearing the path for the BJP to form the government yet again. As per midday trends, the Congress is hovering around 25–30 seats, while the BJP is inching close to the 100-mark, making it a visibly one-sided contest.
The Congress, meanwhile, has largely performed along expected lines in Muslim-dominated constituencies. In the Barak Valley, of the 15 seats, seven have a Muslim majority, while in lower Assam, around 15 more constituencies are similarly demographically inclined. Additionally, there are at least half a dozen seats where Muslim voters play a decisive role. These remain the pockets where the Congress has managed to hold ground, suggesting that the party relied heavily on its traditional support base rather than expanding its outreach. The “Muslim seat” formula appears to have worked in areas where the party put in minimal effort, banking on historical loyalty.
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However, expectations from north Assam have not materialised. Congress leaders were hoping to secure around 20 seats out of nearly 45 in the region, but early trends indicate that the BJP has largely maintained its dominance. The Congress had focused on influential voter segments such as the Ahoms (around 2 per cent of the population) and tea garden workers, who play a decisive role in over 30 constituencies. Yet, the results so far suggest a status quo, with little electoral shift in the party’s favour.
The Congress has suffered from deficits at multiple levels, lack of cohesive leadership, weak cadre strength, poor coordination with alliance partners, and, above all, inadequate strategic planning to counter the BJP’s deeply entrenched organisational network built over the past decade. The defeat also comes at a time when the party’s central leadership was banking heavily on anti-incumbency against Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma to tilt the scales in its favour.
In contrast, the BJP’s cadre appeared disciplined, well-directed, and clear about its electoral objectives, reflecting a high level of organisational efficiency on the ground.
An alliance partner, speaking to THE WEEK a month ahead of the elections, had flagged the lack of intensity in the Congress campaign. “It felt as if they were not serious about winning. There was little groundwork on identifying winnable constituencies or clarity on seat-sharing with alliance partners,” the leader said.