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Election analysis: What West Bengal's highest-ever voter turnout of 91.78 per cent implies

Political parties are dissecting the unprecedented numbers, with the Special Intensified Revision of the voter list and fear of name removal cited as key drivers

People wait in a queue to cast votes during the first phase of the West Bengal Assembly elections, in Asansol, Paschim Bardhaman district | PTI

The first phase of the Assembly elections in West Bengal, held on Thursday, saw a record voter turnout of 92.72 per cent, the highest-ever percentage in West Bengal since Independence, according to Chief Election Commissioner Gyanesh Kumar.

The highest voter turnout was in Cooch Behar at 96.04 per cent. Apart from this, 95.44 per cent of the votes were cast in South Dinajpur. More than 94 per cent of the votes were cast in Jalpaiguri, Malda, Birbhum and Uttar Dinajpur. The voter turnout in Darjeeling and Kalimpong is below 90 per cent. The voter turnout in the remaining districts has also crossed the 90 mark.

Political parties and analysts are now dissecting the reasons behind the high voter turnout. Many believe that one of the main reasons behind this unprecedented turnout rate  is the Special Intensified Revision (SIR) of the Voter List.

Many believe people have rushed to the booths in fear that their names will be removed from the list if they do not vote.

In the 152 constituencies of the 16 districts of the state where voting took place on  Thursday, the total number of voters in 2021 was 3.78 crore. That time, 83.2 per cent of the votes were cast, which means 3.14 crore people voted. In 2026, the total number of voters in the first phase of the SIR stood at 3.60 crore. About 3.24 crore people voted. Though the total number of voters decreased, the number of voters increased.

Local media reports cite how migrant labourers rushed to the state from far and wide just to exercise their right to vote. While the ruling TMC believes this huge vote was due to opposition to SIR, the opposition has claimed that this vote was in favour of a 'change' of power in the state.

Conventional wisdom mandates that large voter turnout indicates anti-incumbency, and the verdict of the people goes against the ruling government. However, there is a  counterargument with many in the Trinamool citing the pattern of the last Lok Sabha and  Assembly elections in this context. In West Bengal, a large number of votes were cast that time too, and the results of the vote went in favour of the ruling party in the state.

They also cite the example of the neighbouring state of Bihar to show that the increase  in voter turnout after the SIR is normal. Even after the increase in voter turnout in Bihar too, the ruling government made a 'return'.

However, the opposition is citing the statistics of 2011. That year was the highest voter turnout in West Bengal to date. The voter turnout was 84.33 per cent, and that vote ended 34 years of Left rule. Mamata Banerjee's Trinamool came to power in the state in the wind of change.