For the first time in three years, India would be bracing for a monsoon season that might leave lakhs of farmers short-changed and many feeling the heat, literally and otherwise.
Earlier this week, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) released its first-stage Long Range Forecast for the 2026 Southwest Monsoon Season (June–September). According to the report, the country is most likely to receive below-normal rainfall, estimated at 92 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA) of 87 cm (with a model error of ±5%).
This marked the first below-normal monsoon forecast in India's April prediction since 2015. Despite 2023 getting lacklustre monsoons, the IMD predicted a normal one.
The forecast noted that the weak La Niña-like conditions that supported good rains in recent years were now transitioning to ENSO-neutral conditions, and IMD's own Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System (MMCFS) warned that El Niño conditions were likely to develop during the monsoon season itself.
Historically, since 1950, out of 16 El Niño years, at least 7 resulted in below-normal monsoon rainfall over India. This becomes particularly strong in the second half of the season, i.e., August–September.
The IMD also noted that there was a 35 per cent probability of deficient rainfall (below 90 per cent of LPA) and a 31 per cent probability of below-normal rainfall. The probability of above-normal or excess rainfall was much lower than usual.
Geographically, most of the country is expected to receive below-normal rain, with the exception being parts of Northeast India, Northwest India, and South Peninsular India, where normal to above-normal rainfall is likely.
The grim long-range forecast comes at a time when India is already reeling from a ferocious pre-summer. IMD's daily weather bulletin on April 14, 2026, recorded that the highest maximum temperature of 43.8°C was clocked at Akola in Maharashtra.
Heat wave conditions are now formally expected across Telangana, Vidarbha, Marathwada, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, Rayalaseema, West Rajasthan and Jharkhand through April 16–20.
Delhi is bracing for 40–42°C by April 17, with temperatures running 3–5°C above normal across Northwest India over the next five days.
In response, IMD has issued agromet advisories asking farmers across Maharashtra, Gujarat, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Karnataka and Odisha to irrigate crops during cooler morning and evening hours, cover banana bunches, install shade nets for young plants and ensure livestock have access to clean water in the heat.
Most of India’s farmed area depends on monsoon rains, and kharif crops like rice, pulses and oilseeds are directly at risk. IMD is set to issue an updated forecast in the last week of May 2026.