Kerala assembly polls 2026: Does high voter turnout signal anti-incumbency?

Back in 1959, the Union government dismissed Kerala’s first Left government under the controversial Article 356 of the Indian Constitution following the Vimochana Samaram (Liberation Struggle), driven primarily by the Syro-Malabar Church, the Nair Service Society, the Indian Union Muslim League, the Praja Socialist Party and the Indian National Congress. After a brief period of President’s Rule, fresh elections were held in 1960.

In the 1957 elections—the first after the formation of Kerala—the voter turnout was 65.49 per cent. However, the 1960 elections, held in the aftermath of the Vimochana Samaram, recorded the highest turnout in the state’s history, rising by over 20 percentage points to 85.72 per cent. The Communist Party of India, which contested the maximum number of seats (108 of 126), won only 29, while the Congress, riding the anti-incumbency wave and winning 63 seats, formed the government with the Praja Socialist Party.

The next major spike in voter turnout came in the 1987 Assembly elections, with results favouring the CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front. The incumbent United Democratic Front (UDF), led by Chief Minister K. Karunakaran, faced widespread criticism over allegations of corruption, nepotism, administrative lapses, and economic dissatisfaction.

The elections followed a phase of sharp political alignments, realignments and expulsions. The merger of INC (I) and INC (A) in 1982 triggered this trend, followed by the IUML–AIML reunion (1985), splits in the Kerala Congress, NDP and SRP, and sections of Congress (S) and Janata joining the Congress. The period also saw M.V. Raghavan form the Communist Marxist Party after his expulsion from the CPI(M), alongside the emergence of a third front led by the BJP–Hindu Munnani. This election, which witnessed fierce competition, resulted in the LDF securing a clear majority (78 seats against the UDF’s 61).

The next significant spike came in 2016, when Pinarayi Vijayan came to power for the first time, riding an anti-incumbency wave against the Oommen Chandy government, driven by multiple high-profile corruption scandals and its failure to effectively counter the opposition’s campaign. A crucial feature in 2016 was the dramatic surge in women voters: women outvoted men statewide by 2.15 percentage points, helping push overall turnout past 77 per cent.

In 2021, a pro-incumbency wave followed in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, even as voter turnout dipped by nearly 1.5 percentage points. In 2016, women outvoted men in 88 of Kerala’s 140 Assembly constituencies; by 2021, this fell to 73, with the statewide gender gap narrowing to near zero.

Cut to 2026. Kerala has witnessed heavy polling, with turnout already crossing 78.13 per cent, and the final figure likely to approach or even exceed 80 per cent.

Notably, this is already the highest turnout in any election since the last delimitation, and it remains to be seen whether it will also mark a fresh surge in women voters. 

While all three fronts claim the high turnout favours them, history suggests that high turnouts in Kerala generally signal a mood for change and anti-incumbency mobilisation, which has often hurt the incumbent. Nevertheless, one has to wait until May 4 for the actual picture, when the votes are counted.