This is the first time in three decades that the Congress in West Bengal is contesting alone in all 294 Assembly seats.
284 candidates were announced on Sunday, with the remaining 10 seats to be declared, with more names of people likely to join the party too.
Former Leader of Opposition (LoP) in Lok Sabha, Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury, contests from his stronghold in Murshidabad's Berhampore district, while former Malda MP Mausam Noor is contesting from Maltipur (in the Malda district).
The party currently has Isha Khan Chowdhury as one MP from Malda South, but no Assembly seats in Malda or Murshidabad.
While its alliance partner, CPI(M), too does not hold any Assembly seats in the state, the red party got a 4.7 per cent vote share while Congress bagged a 3 per cent vote share.
Winning the 2024 Lok Sabha seat got Congress a 4.7 per cent vote share in 2024. The Congress is banking on Adhir Chowdhury, who is contesting Assembly elections after 1996. Noor is the niece of former Railway Minister A.B.A. Ghani Khan Choudhury, and is back in Congress after switching to the TMC in 2019.
How does the national party plan to leverage the two faces that have been prominent Congress mass leaders? Will the Congress contesting have an impact on the Trinamool Congress (TMC) vote bank—more so with a Muslim majority in the Congress strongholds of Malda, Murshidabad and Uttar Dinajpur?
The dynamics are as follows:
Murshidabad has 22 Assembly seats, of which 20 are with the TMC and two are with the BJP
Malda has 12 seats, of which eight are with the TMC and four are with the BJP
Uttar Dinajpur has nine seats, of which seven are with the TMC and two are with BJP
The total seats add up to 43, of which 34 are with TMC, which translates into 11.5 per cent of the 294 Assembly seats for the ruling party.
The contenders for TMC in this belt are the Congress, BJP, and Humayun Kabir’s party—the Aam Janata Unnayan Party (AJUP)—in alliance with Assadudin Owaisi’s All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM).
“Apart from these 2-3 seats, Congress won’t be able to get much votes this year. But they will definitely put their heads high and flags high in the politics of West Bengal and are looking at the next Lok Sabha elections I think,” noted political analyst Udayan Bandhyopadhyay.
He further explains that as per census data, in Murshidabad, district minorities constitute 65-70 per cent of the vote.
“No party can get 50 per cent votes. When minorities are majority in districts, you can expect 100 per cent of them will vote for the TMC or Congress. Same is true in Malda and North Dinajpur.”
“The Congress recovered a bit of ground in 2021 despite the Left not winning a single seat with the Congress-Left Front alliance. Congress recovering a bit of ground in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections with Isha Khan Chowdhury’s victory may win the party 2-3 seats from that particular Lok Sabha segment,” pointed out Professor Maidul Islam, Professor of Political Science at the Centre for Studies in Social Sciences.
The other aspect is Special Intensive Revision (SIR), which might go in favour of the TMC.
“Minority votes are going to get consolidated behind Trinamool because SIR is an issue and under-adjudication voters are mostly Muslim. Given the fact they are so marginalised, they won’t think twice before voting for Trinamool, because the party gives out a message that the BJP wanted to remove your vote from the electoral role. We are the only party that moved court, hit a dharna and were against SIR from the beginning. It is because of our struggle that half of you have been included in electoral rolls,” Prof Islam added.
While many factors play out for the Congress, minority voters in their stronghold will keep various factors in mind before casting their vote.
The question is: will the past glory of the Congress and the party going solo in these elections be enough to repose faith in voters for a party aiming to re-claim their bastion?