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Is Mamata Banerjee’s minority vote bank at risk with Humayun Kabir-Owaisi alliance?

AIMIM will make its electoral debut in West Bengal by contesting eight seats in the state's Muslim-majority regions

AJUP chief Humayun Kabir with AIMIM leader Asaduddin Owaisi | Salil Bera

With the West Bengal Assembly elections just around the corner, Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee is intensifying her outreach to the minority community. The Trinamool Congress (TMC) supremo hopes that her strong opposition to the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) will consolidate the Muslim vote, giving her party an electoral edge.

However, a recent political development in the state could threaten the TMC’s traditional hold on the Muslim vote. Humayun Kabir, who formed a new party after being suspended from the TMC following controversy over his proposed Babri-style mosque in Murshidabad district, has entered into an electoral alliance with Asaduddin Owaisi’s All India Majlis-e-Ittehad-ul-Muslimeen (AIMIM).

Kabir announced that his party, the Am Janata Unnayan Party (AJUP), would contest 182 seats in an alliance with AIMIM and emerge as a decisive player in government formation. In a recent interview with PTI, Kabir stated that if his party were to form the government, West Bengal would have its first Muslim chief minister.

Under the seat-sharing agreement, AIMIM, making its electoral debut in West Bengal, will contest eight seats—three in Birbhum, three in Murshidabad, and two in Malda. All these constituencies have significant Muslim populations. 

Owaisi's party has alleged lack of development in Muslim-majority districts like Malda and Murshidabad, claiming that high unemployment has led many young people to migrate. In an interview with Indian Express, AIMIM's West Bengal president, Imran Solanki, blamed the state government for the inadequate infrastructure in higher education and healthcare.

There has been growing discontent among the Muslim community in the state after a 2024 Calcutta High Court order, which cancelled approximately 1.2 million OBC certificates issued since 2010. The court also stayed reservations for 140 sub-categories under the OBC-A and OBC-B lists created by the state government.

West Bengal has nearly 30 per cent Muslim voters, traditionally loyal to the TMC. If the AIMIM-AJUP alliance manages to tap into the community’s discontent, it could deal a severe blow to Mamata Banerjee’s party in the upcoming elections.

‘Mamata helped BJP grow’

During a press conference in Kolkata on Wednesday, Owaisi launched a scathing attack on Mamata Banerjee, accusing her of inadvertently aiding the BJP's rise in the state.

“Our alliance with Humayun Kabir is focused on stopping the exploitation of weaker sections in West Bengal and empowering them,” Owaisi said. He emphasised the underdevelopment of the minority community as a key issue in the elections and asserted that their alliance would work to strengthen Muslim political leadership.

Buoyed by its strong performance in the recent Bihar elections, where it won five seats, the AIMIM is now eager to expand its footprint in West Bengal as well.

Elections to the 294-member West Bengal Assembly are scheduled for April 23 and 29, with vote counting set for May 4.