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Will Congress's lack of consensus on Iran-US war hurt its poll prospects?

Congress leaders Shashi Tharoor and Manish Tewari diverge from party leadership on the US-Israel-Iran conflict, sparking debate on India's foreign policy and potential electoral impact, especially concerning the minority vote

Representative image | PTI

Striking a contrary note, Congress senior leaders Shashi Tharoor and Manish Tewari have backed the Centre's approach on the US-Israel-Iran conflict. This comes at a time when the Congress top leaders have openly questioned the credibility of Delhi's diplomatic strategy. 

The Congress had earlier urged the Centre to side with Iran, a stance that drew sharp condemnation from the BJP. Senior leaders, including Amit Malviya and Pradeep Bhandari, spearheaded a counter-attack, labelling the Congress 'anti-India' and accusing the opposition of pursuing 'divisive politics' on matters of national security. 

Congress's top leaders Sonia Gandhi, Mallikarjun Kharge, and Rahul Gandhi have attacked the Centre for its "silence" on the assassination of Iran's former supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. 

Shashi Tharoor, in his piece in the Indian Express, said that "he will not condemn the government for choosing silence over confrontation." He had mentioned that many Indian liberals want "us to have taken the moral high ground, denouncing the war as a flagrant violation of international law." 

He said that at a time when the nation has too much at stake, it is better to adopt a cautious approach, and the silence is not to be viewed as an "endorsement" of the war. "It is a recognition that our national interest requires prudence, not posturing," he said. 

As four states prepare for the polls, will the difference of opinion within the Congress on its 'moral standing' impact the party’s prospects? "The minority vote will be a pivotal factor in the upcoming elections across Kerala, West Bengal, Assam, and Tamil Nadu. 

In states like Kerala and West Bengal, the minority electorate often looks for a clear, unified stance on international humanitarian issues. If senior leaders like Shashi Tharoor and Manish Tewari support the Centre while the party leadership hesitates, it may create a "confused narrative" that the Opposition can exploit. In Kerala, even as Muslim-majority GCC nations have largely refrained from condemning the US-Israel straikes, the sentiment of minority community is in support for Iran, which they view as a nation fighting for survival. 

"India has far too much at stake, not only in the US, but in the Gulf Arab states currently facing Iranian missile and drone attacks. Nearly $200 billion in annual trade flows through this region," Tharoor said. Along with the well-being of nine million Indian workers and residents in the Gulf, India's energy security depends on Gulf oil and gas. 

Chandigarh MP Manish Tewari said, "It is important to understand that there is not one war which is happening in West Asia. There are multiple wars...What is happening between Israel and Iran and the US, taking a side, is not just about the Middle East dynamic on its own...It’s not our war. We’ve always been rather marginal players in the greater Middle East." 

Meanwhile, demanding a discussion in the Parliament a few days ago, Sonia Gandhi said that the killing of a sitting head of state in the middle of ongoing negotiations marks a grave rupture in international relations. She said that India has risked appearing selective in its principles by not condemning the war. 

Rahul Gandhi also criticised the Narendra Modi government for supporting Khamenei's assassination. 'PM Modi supports the assassination of a head of state as a way to define the world order," he said.