Unease among opposition alliance partners, former state Congress president Bhupen Borah’s switchover to the BJP, and questions over the Congress’s connect with ground sentiment. Do these developments signal a shift in the electoral landscape towards the BJP. Is Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma’s popularity shaping perceptions of the upcoming election where the BJP could hold a clear advantage?
Bhupen Borah's resignation did come as a shock to many, but several insiders believed that he was in constant touch with the BJP's firebrand leader and Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma for some time. However, what came as a bigger surprise was the Congress leadership's assertion to convince him to stay in the party. For it is widely known that Rahul Gandhi doesn't believe in stopping anyone from leaving the party as he believes in cleansing it by letting non-Congress-minded people leave the ship.
"Many a time when a big leader leaves the Congress, his cadre goes with him, but the workers of the Ranganadi constituency remained in the Congress after he left," a senior Congress leader said.
Although Borah has neither been a crowd puller nor an impactful organiser, his switch plays a rhetorical role against the Congress and also dents the party’s momentum at a crucial phase of the elections. Borah was also privy to Congress strategies and plans, which may again send a discouraging signal about the party’s inability to hold on to important leaders or choose its leaders wisely.
"There is a leadership deficit in Congress. All the capable leaders in the Congress have switched over to the BJP in the past five years after Himanta became the chief minister. The Congress has also not been able to groom its local leadership, which can haunt its grassroots operations during elections unless there is some wave in our favour," another senior Congress leader said.
It was interesting the kind of reasons Borah gave after leaving the party. One was that Gaurav Gogoi should justify his alleged Pakistan connections, and that the Congress party is under the dominating influence of Muslim MP Rakibul Hussain. Both issues play right into the BJP’s playbook.
Notably, Hussain garnered more than 10 lakh votes in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, and some now say he lost popularity among Muslim leaders in the party. However, the bigger problem for the Congress is its failure to bring its cadre in order, due to which its alliance partners have grown uneasy, thinking that if the Congress does not put its own house in order, it may have a spillover effect on their parties’ performance, eventually leading to lower-than-expected results.
For many, the state unit president Gaurav Gogoi has been unable to hold the cadre together and lacks statewide control and support. Partly, this is attributed to his low engagement with party leaders.
Yet, experts may not categorically state their predictions on the Assam elections, as there are still many moving political parts in the state. The real battle still lies in upper Assam where Himanta will try to retain his seats as the BJP was the lone majority party out of around 45 seats winning around 40 seats. But with the current shift in sentiment among the tribals, the BJP may be looking into uncertainty and Congress would be waiting to embark on that uncertainty. However Congress is yet seen as the party widely cut off from ground sentiment.
The Congress party is up against a team led by a strong leader with sound electoral machinery and dedicated workers ready to mobilise during the elections, while the Opposition still appears disorganised and less active.