Before the untimely demise of Maharashtra Deputy Chief Minister Ajit Pawar in a tragic plane crash on Wednesday, the state was abuzz with speculation that a possible merger of NCP (SP) with the NCP under Ajit Pawar's leadership was likely.
The ties between the two factions have warmed in recent months, especially after the local body polls in which they joined hands in Pune and Pimpri-Chinchwad. NCP (SP) working president Supriya Sule had even hinted at the possibility of a total merger of the two factions, merely three years after the split.
Even Ajit Pawar had hinted at a possible merger, saying in an interview that he is for "politics of addition, not subtraction.”
The leadership vacuum
Ajit Pawar's Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) is likely to face a leadership crisis after the demise of the leader, as the party does not really have a second-in-command. Ajit Pawar's wife, Sunetra Pawar, is currently a Rajya Sabha member and has been politically active. She, however, lacks administrative experience.
Apart from state NCP president Sunil Tatkare and national working president Praful Patel, the party does not have a senior leader capable of succeeding the late leader. While Patel and Tatkare have been major organisational figures, they lack the statewide grassroots connect.
There are also Parth and Jay Pawar, the sons of Ajit Pawar, with the former being positioned as a possible successor to his father's legacy.
Will senior Pawar step in and save the party?
Speculations are also rife that Sharad Pawar, who has hinted at retiring by the end of the year, may call for a unification of the two factions at this critical time, bringing together his grandnephews Parth and Jay and the nephew of Ajit Pawar, Rohit.
Senior journalist and political analyst Prakash Akolkar told news agency PTI that both NCP factions are contesting the February 5 Zilla Parishad elections together on the 'clock' symbol, effectively signalling an unofficial merger.
"The question is no longer about who merges with whom. With only two Opposition parties left—Congress and Shiv Sena (UBT)—it remains to be seen whether the Congress can revive itself," he was quoted as saying.
Amid such speculations and rumours, analysts say that Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis will need to ensure that the 41 MLAs aligned with Ajit Pawar do not drift back toward Sharad Pawar.
Besides, the merger in the local polls did not work in the party's favour. The NCP, which contested separately from Mahayuti allies, bagged 167 seats across 29 municipal corporations and was defeated by the BJP on its home ground of Pune and Pimpri-Chinchwad, where it had aligned with NCP (SP).