The Congress, the principal Opposition party in Assam, is facing erosion of its political standing as its support base in the state shows a growing lack of confidence. The party’s low leadership visibility and meagre presence on the ground have weakened its connection with voters, giving the BJP a clear upper hand as the state is set to enter the election mode to choose the government for the next five years.
The poor electoral standing of the Congress is more visible in Guwahati. "The Congress may do good, but for now we don't think it has any chance to win the elections," Samsad Ahmed, who works as a cab driver in the state capital, said. "The BJP has started conducting rallies, and more people talk about them than they talk about the Opposition."
Many people like Samsad find the BJP-led alliance more powerful than the Opposition on the ground, but a section of political analysts believes that the Opposition has not mobilised its cadre yet, as it has not come to the active election mode. It is also expected that narrative-building and outreach to the public will ramp up only after Rahul Gandhi holds rallies and creates momentum.
"The BJP has finances, and they can spend money on rallies. They can also start it early and sustain their election campaign," a political observer said. "The opposition cannot do that. Moreover they haven't been able to align themselves well with each other yet. They may have decided to contest elections together and may be intending to fight it well together, but that rhythm which can help them put up a challenge against the Himanta Biswa Sarma government is not yet there."
In the 2021 Assembly elections, the BJP retained power while the Congress, for the second consecutive time, lost the polls. In 2016, the grand old party bagged just 26 seats out of the state’s 126 constituencies and, in the subsequent election, it managed to gain three more seats to reach 29.
As the election campaign heats up, the opposition hopes to accelerate anti-incumbency by highlighting key issues and convincing voters that a change in government could bring better development and relief. Going by trends from past Assembly elections, where vote shares have been close, with Congress polling around 30 per cent and the BJP about 33 per cent, the Congress is upbeat about overtaking the BJP with the support of alliance partners such as Raijor Dal and the Assam Jatiya Parishad, whose influence among voters appears to be growing.
A Congress leader said, “These two parties may not be able to win on their own but have enough influence to facilitate vote transfers and shape narratives.”
However, other leaders believe their influence is limited. Though these parties are popular among Muslim voters for their anti-BJP stance, it may not necessarily translate into a decisive addition of votes capable of dislodging the BJP government on polling day.
Notably, the Congress has kept the All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) out of its alliance, believing that its inclusion could trigger reverse polarisation in an already polarised election. The party also hopes that this strategy will help it retain its traditional voter base in Upper Assam.
As of now, both alliances are being cautious in choosing their candidates, a process that will be crucial for building momentum and trust at the grassroots level. With Prime Minister Narendra Modi's visit to Guwahati, BJP has set its political ball rolling, whereas the Congress has yet to make its move.