The decision of estranged Thackeray brothers - Raj Thackeray and Uddav Thackeray - to come together to fight the upcoming local body elections together will come as a blow to the BJP. Political analysts believe that the MNS and Shiv Sena (UBT) joining hands could eat into the saffron parties' chances, though the BJP is comfortably placed in the Assembly.
Though Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis has made it clear that the Thackeray brothers getting together will not impact the BJP, local media reports hint that there is some uneasiness within the party. The party’s core committee has begun formulating a strategy to deal with this new alliance of the Thackeray brothers, according to Loksatta. The BJP leaders have also admitted that the Mumbai Municipal Corporation election will not be that easy for the ruling party.
The performance of the Thackeray faction and the MNS in last year's assembly elections was disappointing. But even so, their combined strength in the municipal corporation cannot be ignored, Loksatta quoted BJP insiders.
Maratha, Muslim votes
The stronghold of the MNS and Shiv Sena is the Maratha votes, which the cousins hope to mobilise in the upcoming elections. Though the Thackeray group did not manage to do well in the recent local body elections, there are still chances that they could polarise the Marathi votes. The MNS and Shiv Sena have already announced that the next Mayor of Mumbai will be a Marathi.
Not just the Maratha votes, they could also bag Muslim votes. Over 26 per cent of the population in Mumbai are Marathi-speaking voters. Most of them seem to support the Shiv Sena Thackeray faction and the MNS. This, coupled with the 11 percent of Muslim voters, could side with Thackeray.
Besides, a large portion of the 11 percent Dalit population also seems to be moving away from the BJP. If all these figures come together, the Thackeray brothers' alliance can be a big challenge for the BJP.
It is expected that the MNS and Shiv Sena (UBT) could cause a major blow to the BJP in 39 out of 227 wards. In over 67 of these, the votes received by the MNS were more than the winning margin of the candidate’s victory. In 39 of these 67 wards, the candidates of the Maha Vikas Aghadi (Congress, NCP-Sharad Pawar group and Shiv Sena-Uddhav group) were leading, while in 28 wards, the ruling Mahayuti was leading.