The Assam assembly elections have become crucial for the Congress, especially with its arch-rival, the Himanta Biswa Sarma-led Bharatiya Janata Party, helming the government in the state, and in the aftermath of the party’s loss in Bihar. However, a combination of factors needs to be addressed, especially the alliance equation, to ensure that Muslim votes are not divided.
Yet, a recent statement by Assam Congress president Gaurav Gogoi, declaring that the national party will have no alliance with the All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF), could risk fragmenting Muslim votes. The regional party has a strong cadre base in Muslim constituencies and could be a leading contestant in more than 15 constituencies in a fight with the Congress against the BJP. The party already has 15 sitting MLAs in the state.
According to several reports, Muslims constitute around 35 per cent of Assam’s population, numbering around 1.07 crore out of a total of 3.12 crore, making it the second most Muslim-dominated state after Jammu and Kashmir. Political reports suggest that there are around 25 assembly seats out of the 126 that are Muslim-dominated, and if Muslim votes split in these constituencies, it could directly help the BJP increase its number of legislators in the region.
Gogoi recently, while talking to the media, ruled out any alliance with the AIUDF before the 2026 assembly elections, calling the party “communal” and drawing similarities with the BJP.
On the other hand, the AIUDF has announced a poll strategy under which its party chief, Badruddin Ajmal, said that the party would field candidates in 35 constituencies. Rejecting the claim that his party is politically irrelevant, he asked, “If we are ‘zero,’ then what are Akhil Gogoi and Lurinjyoti Gogoi?”
He also said that most political parties in the state have no real existence. “Out of 17 political parties in the state, 15 have no real existence. AIUDF will soon make it clear whether its biggest political enemy is the Congress or the BJP.”
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Earlier, the AIUDF was part of the Congress-led grand alliance in 2021 Assam assembly elections. However, the regional party parted ways after Congress’ former state chief, Bhupen Kumar Borah, took charge of the state unit. The Congress has 26 legislators in the assembly.
The party, however, has already started working on alliances with smaller parties. Last month, the grand old party brought smaller parties together and joined hands with Jatiya Dal–Asom (JDA), CPI(M), Assam Jatiya Parishad (AJP), Raijor Dal, CPI, CPI(ML), and the Karbi Anglong-based All Party Hill Leaders Conference (APHLC) to fight the Assembly elections from a common platform.
“This is a very important phase for the anti-BJP parties. They are preparing to tap into the anti-incumbency against the government. But, they also have to realise that there may not be enough secular votes to drive both major Opposition parties to success when the BJP makes its strategy at the micro level,” a political analyst said. “The Congress is already going through a tough time organisationally. Also, nothing substantial can be said yet, as there is still a lot of time for negotiations or possibly an understanding on important seats.”