As counting progresses in Bihar, the NDA is heading for a decisive victory, leading in nearly 200 of the 243 assembly seats. The numbers mark a dramatic return for Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, whose political obituary had been written many times over the past year. Instead, the results suggest an emphatic endorsement of his social welfare model and long-cultivated support base of women and extremely backward classes. This will pave the way for Nitish swearing in for the 10th time.
This decisive mandate is also a good news for the Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led NDA government. The emphatic endorsement of the Modi-Nitish combination has ensured that the SIR controversy failed to click with the voters and that the Centre could push for bigger reforms. The Modi government’s engagement with the Bihari migrants—running trains for them during the festival season, promising them bigger cash transfers, jobs, and hailing the cultural symbols—has delivered on the ground.
On the political front, the Bihar election campaign was defined by two competing promises: Tejashwi Yadav’s pledge of one government job for every family, and Nitish Kumar’s Rs 10,000 cash transfer to over one crore women. With the NDA sweeping large parts of the state, it is clear which message has prevailed.
The big endorsement for Nitish has come as JD(U) appeared to add over 35 more seats to its previous tally of 43 seats. This proves that the socialist leader's appeal continued unabated, particularly among women, EBCs and other marginalised communities. When Nitish takes charge for another term, it would also mean that the BJP, despite emerging as the single largest party, may have to wait to install its CM. But there is another catch: if the trends hold, the BJP, Chirag Paswan's LJP (R) along with HAM and RLM form the majority, and hence chances of Nitish making a switch goes dramatically down, as the Opposition does not have the numbers.
Through the campaign, student anger over exam leaks and job scams created an opening for the Opposition. Tejashwi Yadav drew crowds and attempted to expand the RJD’s social coalition by shifting from “social justice” to “economic justice.” But as counting trends show, the NDA has held on to its core constituencies. The JD(U)'s targeted outreach to women, coupled with the BJP’s upper-caste consolidation and Chirag Paswan’s strong performance among Dalit voters, has created an alliance-wide wave that the Grand Alliance could not counter.
Nitish’s own position had seemed uncertain through the campaign, as murmurs within the BJP about installing its own chief minister created friction. The JD(U) chief had responded by reasserting his importance in the alliance. However, given Nitish Kumar’s appeal and some ambiguous signals, the BJP leadership had publicly endorsed him as the NDA’s chief ministerial face. Today’s trends appear to validate that decision.
For the Grand Alliance, the results reflect a deeper setback. Despite RJD’s attempts to widen its base and push of the Congress for organisational revival, the alliance has not been able to convert its messaging into seats. In several constituencies, women voters appear to have shifted decisively towards Nitish, reinforcing a trend seen in the last two election cycles. Early data also suggests that the split in the Muslim votes as Assaddudin Owaisi-led AIMIM was leading on more seats than Congress. This dent in MY (Muslim-Yadav) support base for the RJD is likely to send shockwaves even in the neighbouring Uttar Pradesh, where Akhilesh Yadav also relies on this combination.
The JD(U)’s social engineering — a balanced distribution of seats among backward, extremely backward, Dalit, and upper-caste communities — has shown results. So has Nitish’s long-term investment in schemes that enhanced women’s agency, from bicycles to livelihood missions. Analysts who had questioned whether this would be his final election now say he has reasserted his relevance in Bihar’s political landscape.
The BJP, which has long sought a Hindi heartland state where it can install its own chief minister, will now have to recalibrate. With the NDA comfortably ahead, and Nitish positioned to return as chief minister, the party will weigh its gains in terms of seat share and long-term leverage.
At 74, Nitish has once again outmanoeuvred predictions and rivals. The 2025 election was billed as a generational contest between a post-Mandal leader and an older socialist patriarch. Counting day has delivered its verdict: the veteran has regained command.