The dark horse that has emerged out of the Bihar assembly elections is AIMIM, which has been able to win at least five assembly seats even though four of its MLAs, along with their cadres, had shifted to the RJD a few years back after winning the 2020 assembly elections. Interestingly, the party contested independently and chose Muslim-dominated constituencies, mostly in Seemanchal, to contest its electoral battle. The party has performed better than the Congress in terms of winning margins, which clearly shows that the Mahagathbandhan has suffered a drastic fall among Muslim voters.
According to political observers, the Mahagathbandhan had taken Muslim voters for granted, and therefore their public speeches and body language were less soothing to Muslims, which is evident from the results. A political analyst said, “Wherever there is a majority of Muslim voters, they cease to be strategic voters and therefore vote according to their will rather than uniting against the BJP.”
The sway of Muslim voters away from the Mahagathbandhan also shows declining trust of Muslims in both the Congress as well as the RJD, who have always banked on Muslim voters. Strikingly, the Mahagathbandhan had rejected offers of alliance from AIMIM months before the Bihar assembly elections, thinking that Muslims would consolidate behind an anti-BJP alliance and reject a third-front party. However, Muslims in the Seemanchal region, which has around 24 assembly seats spread across the four districts of Katihar, Kishanganj, Araria and Purnia, have voted otherwise.
The Congress party has also not been able to retain the seat of its most recognised Muslim face, Shakeel Ahmad Khan, who was the Congress Legislature Party leader in Bihar, heading around 15 Congress legislators. A senior Congress leader said, “The Congress had given 10 seats to Muslims out of the 60 seats it contested, and there was conflict on 8 seats as many people contested the choice of candidates. Shakeel Ahmad Khan’s seat was accepted by all, and yet he wasn’t able to retain the seat. We will assess why we haven’t been able to win seats when there was visible anti-incumbency and youth were visibly wanting change of government.”
Party leaders think both parties did not make enough efforts to make Muslims feel that they were standing with them, which created confusion and drove Muslim voters towards the party that speaks only about them, that is, AIMIM. A political analyst says, “This is the failure of the Mahagathbandhan, which has not been able to build trust among Muslim voters. AIMIM’s win is a big signal that if Muslims find a substitute, they will vote for it because they are no longer entirely with the Mahagathbandhan.”
However, the opposition alliance partners had also limited their outreach to Muslim voters as they feared reverse polarisation, which they thought the BJP could benefit from. There seems to be a total wipeout of the Mahagathbandhan in Bihar, and rebuilding its cadre and re-entering the imagination of the people will require greater hard work throughout the years to come.