With barely weeks left for elections in Bihar, the campaign has reached a fever pitch. With Chief Minister Nitish Kumar as its face, the NDA is fighting a tough battle against RJD chief Tejashwi Yadav-led Mahagathbandhan. While the Modi image and personal aura are formidable factors, Nitish too is hoping to set a record by returning to power for another five years.
These are the five factors that Nitish might highlight to ensure he stays in the Chief Minister's chair.
1) ‘Sushasan Babu' image: It was Nitish Kumar’s ‘Sushasan Babu’ image that broke the RJD stronghold in the state. He is likely to use the “good governance and development” campaign this time too. He could also claim that the two AIIMS, one IIT, the highways, and other basic infrastructure that came up in Bihar, as proof of his good governance. The “jungle raj” accusation against RJD could also be levelled by Nitish.
2) Great equation within NDA alliance: Nitish could highlight the crisis within the Mahagathbandhan on seat sharing to emphasise how strong the ruling alliance is. He could claim that all parties mutually agreed upon ticket distribution and are contesting the elections unitedly. In the Grand Alliance, the allies are engaged in a friendly fight against each other in more than 10 seats. There also seems to be a general consensus among other parties that Nitish would be the CM if the NDA comes to power.
3) Grip on caste factor: Nitish Kumar's politics has always been based on social equations. The JDU has a superior position than all other parties in the extremely backward, Kurmi, backward, and women's vote banks. The BJP has a monopoly on the upper caste vote bank. Chirag Paswan, Jitan Ram Manjhi, and Upendra Kushwaha have a strong hold on the EBC, Dalit, Kushwaha, Koeri, Dusadh, Paswan, Mallah, and other backward castes. This means that their vote share remains strong. This foundation gives them confidence.
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4) Weak constituents of Mahagathbandan: Except RJD, almost all constituents in the Mahagathbandan are unlikely to emerge as kingmakers, unlike the NDA. Mukesh Sahni, who has been declared the deputy chief minister face, earlier won seats only with the backing of the BJP, Nitish could claim. As for RJD, despite its solid voter base of Yadavs, Muslims, and some dominant groups, it struggles to attract wider support across castes. The Congress is organisationally weaker and cannot boast of much political clout in the state.
5) Women voters: Nitish Kumar has always been popular with women voters, thanks to his women-focused initiatives, including the Chief Minister's Girls Cycle Scheme, Chief Minister's Girls Poshak Scheme, and Kanya Vivah Yojana. This is a huge support, as in the 2020 elections, women's turnout was higher than men's. Women cast 59.7% of the vote, compared to 54.6% for men.