Valley-based insurgent groups like the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) are under the scanner after the fatal attack on Assam Rifles in Manipur’s Bishnupur district on Friday. The attack comes at a time when renewed activity of the proscribed outfit has been noticed ahead of its Raising Day on September 25.
While no outfit has claimed responsibility for the attack on the Assam Rifles so far, security sources suspect it to be the handiwork of insurgent groups active in the Valley. The PLA, being the most dominant group, continues to run underground camps in the Valley, especially in districts like Bishnupur and Thoubal that open up access into Myanmar through routes criss-crossing hill districts of Chandel and Kamjong.
In recent days, intelligence sources said the PLA cadres were actively preparing for their Raising Day, and the attack on Assam Rifles is suspected to be a desperate bid to assert presence and put the spotlight on its demand of “liberating” Manipur.
It has been New Delhi’s worry that its porous borders with neighbouring countries, whether it is Bangladesh or Myanmar, can provide a safe haven to militant groups who have enjoyed Chinese funding and continue to run their bases within and outside Indian territory.
Last year, the PLA observed its Raising Day in Thoubal district, where its political wing referred to the students' protests in Bangladesh among other geopolitical factors that allegedly had a bearing on the Northeastern state.
“The armed cadres of PLA and United National Liberation Front factions are still active in the Valley. Their underground cadres are targeting security forces to derail the peace process,” said a senior security official in Manipur.
In 2023, the government signed a peace agreement with the United National Liberation Front, one of the oldest Valley-based insurgent groups, but some of its factions are still creating a nuisance for security forces. While the Pambei group supported the peace agreement, the UNLF-Koireng faction opposed it.
The latest peace initiatives by New Delhi in trying to bridge the divide between the Hill and Valley districts are being opposed by these militant groups, who want to keep the pot boiling.
At least a dozen insurgent groups are active in the valley, including the UNLF (K), RPF/PLA, factions of KYKL, PREPAK, and KCP, besides UPRFM, CorCom (an alliance of UNLF, RPF/PLA, PREPAK), and ASUK, a grouping of KCP and KYKL supported by Myanmar-based NSCN(K).
Valley-based insurgent groups are backed by Naga insurgent groups like NSCN(K) that are also trying to derail the peace initiatives, with a vested interest in putting a spanner in efforts to fence the porous Indo-Myanmar border, which has, for long, given a free run to militant groups smuggling arms and ammunition into Manipur, Nagaland, and other Northeastern states.
Recent operations by security forces against the Valley and Hill-based insurgent groups have prompted them to consolidate on either side. The renewal of the Suspension of Operations pact with Hill-based militant groups like Kuki National Organisation and United People’s Front under renegotiated conditions—like relocating camps away from areas vulnerable to ethnic clashes and reducing the number of designated camps—has also stirred the militant outfits to sow seeds of further unrest.
Security sources said the latest attack on the Assam Rifles is already being used as an excuse by the Hill-based insurgents to complicate matters further. “The ability of the armed outfits in the Valley to strike at security forces is likely to once again spur the hill insurgents to demand a separate administration, citing lack of trust in local governance,” said an official.
The attack on the Assam Rifles, therefore, has repercussions not just on law and order in Manipur but also on ongoing efforts to restore peace and normalcy through peaceful dialogue between the two sides.
What continues to pose a major challenge is the continuing movement of armed cadres of the Valley-based insurgent groups, derailing peace several months after Biren Singh resigned as chief minister, paving the way for President’s rule in Manipur.