The Other Backward Classes (OBC) vote bank in Uttar Pradesh, which constitutes roughly 40-45% of the state’s electorate, is seeing a churn yet again. This is due to two key developments.
First, the Nishad Party President, Sanjay Nishad—an ally of the Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP)—declared that the BJP was free to leave the alliance if it thought that it gained no benefits from it. Second, the ouster of Pooja Pal from the Samajwadi Party (SP) and her subsequent claim that the OBCs were secondary to Yadavs and Muslims in the party’s scheme of things.
Nishad is known for making bold, often uncomfortable statements. But this latest one is his most open challenge to the BJP, which, he said, should not be under the illusion that it could win elections without the support of its allies. The BJP’s allies are such that they represent specific castes; the Apna Dal (S), for instance, is a flagbearer of Kurmis.
The OBCs are complex forces in the political landscape. They are not a singular, cohesive bloc but comprise multiple castes with varying social statuses, regional concentrations, and political preferences. This fragmentation presents both opportunities and challenges for the BJP and the SP, who fiercely compete to secure their loyalty.
OBCs in Uttar Pradesh are primarily divided into two broad groups. The Yadav caste, forming about 10-12 per cent of the state’s population, dominates eastern UP and parts of western UP and has remained loyal to the SP for decades. In contrast, non-Yadav OBCs, comprising 25-30 per cent, include castes like Kurmis, Lodhs, Nishads, Kushwahas, Mauryas, Rajbhars, and Sainis, scattered across various regions such as Bundelkhand and the Ganga belt. This group is politically diverse and has historically leaned toward the BJP since the 1990s.
Within these groups, the Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs) have growing political aspirations, demanding better representation, welfare benefits, caste census enumeration, and reservations. Collectively, OBC votes influence outcomes in more than half of UP’s assembly constituencies, underscoring their central role.
The BJP’s rise in UP since 2014 has been largely driven by its successful consolidation of non-Yadav OBCs and EBCs. Strategically aligning with caste-specific parties like Apna Dal (Sonelal), Suheldev Bhartiya Samaj Party (SBSP), Nishad Party, and Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD), the BJP has leveraged welfare initiatives such as the Vishwakarma Samman Yojana and the Modi-Yogi governance narrative to cement this base.
However, the 2024 Lok Sabha elections revealed vulnerabilities. The BJP experienced an erosion of its non-Yadav OBC support, with many voters shifting toward opposition parties due to perceived inadequate representation and unmet expectations. Its reliance on a fragile coalition of smaller caste parties means continuous negotiation and risks defection. Additionally, the BJP has faced criticism for insufficient penetration into the Yadav community, which remains loyal to the SP.
Internal challenges include balancing upper-caste and OBC interests, as the party’s local organisational structure is still perceived as dominated by Brahmins and Thakurs despite efforts to elevate OBC leaders. There is also growing pressure from various OBC sub-castes demanding proportional political power, creating an urgent need for the BJP to recalibrate its caste-based social engineering and strengthen grassroots leadership within OBC communities.
Historically, the SP has relied heavily on the Yadav community, especially in eastern UP. Recognising this limitation, the party has actively sought to broaden its base by courting non-Yadav OBCs and Dalits, forging the “PDA” (Pichhda, Dalit, Alpsankhyak) alliance. The party has fielded a significant number of candidates from these communities and organised “PDA yatras” to consolidate support.
Despite this inclusive push, the SP still battles the perception of being overly Yadav-centric, which Pal vocalised. This hampers its efforts to appeal to the politically diverse non-Yadav OBCs. Furthermore, the party’s organisational reach outside its Yadav strongholds remains weak, and managing the complex coalition of OBCs, Dalits, and Muslims requires careful balancing to avoid alienation.
The party also contends with generational shifts as younger OBC voters prioritise governance and economic issues over traditional caste allegiances, compelling the SP to revamp its political messaging and demonstrate delivery on development promises.
In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the SP made noticeable inroads among non-Yadav OBCs, particularly in eastern UP, by allocating nearly 70 per cent of its tickets to non-Yadav OBC candidates. This approach helped the party increase its overall vote share from 18 per cent in 2019 to around 34 per cent in 2024, securing 11 seats in the Purvanchal region. Communities such as Kurmi, Kushwaha, Nishad, and Rajbhar shifted markedly in favour of SP candidates, highlighting the impact of SP’s broadened outreach.
The BJP, on the other hand, witnessed a decline in its non-Yadav OBC support by 13-19 percentage points, contributing to a drop in the party’s overall vote share in UP from approximately 50 per cent to 41.4 per cent. Consequently, the BJP’s seat tally fell sharply from 62 in 2019 to 33 in 2024, underscoring the critical nature of the non-Yadav OBC vote in the state’s electoral fortunes.
The OBC vote bank in Uttar Pradesh, with its varied caste groups and evolving socio-political aspirations, remains the fulcrum around which state politics pivots. For the BJP, the challenge lies in maintaining a fragmented non-Yadav coalition while sufficiently engaging the Yadavs, alongside addressing internal organisational and representational gaps. For the SP, diversifying beyond its Yadav base toward non-Yadav OBCs and Dalits, and strengthening its organisational presence, will be key to sustaining and expanding its electoral gains.
As UP approaches the 2027 assembly elections, both parties must deftly manage caste dynamics, enhance grassroots connections, and demonstrate inclusive governance to secure this vital electorate’s trust and support. The battle for the OBC vote just got more unsettled in the state.