Experts are unanimous that Mumbai’s best and first line of defense against the incessant rain is advanced and citizen-focused early warning systems.
The city has been battered by rain for the last four days, and the downpour is expected to continue on Wednesday too, leaving large parts of it waterlogged. Between August 1 and August 19, Santa Cruz recorded 944 mm of rainfall—well above the city’s monthly average of 560.8 mm—while Colaba logged 461.8 mm during the same period. The city has once again surpassed its threshold, highlighting Mumbai’s recurring vulnerability to urban flooding during extreme monsoon events.
Meteorologists explain that multiple weather systems have converged to intensify this spell of rain. A low-pressure area over Vidarbha, a cyclonic circulation over the Northeast Arabian Sea, a depression over the Bay of Bengal, and an active offshore monsoon trough along the Konkan coast created vigorous conditions along coastal Maharashtra, including Mumbai. When such systems align, they reinforce one another, leading to exceptionally heavy rainfall activity.
Climate Scientist Dr Raghu Murtugudde, emeritus professor, University of Maryland & Retired Professor, IIT-Mumbai, said that while three-digit rainfall is not new to the city but climate change has a role to play.
Researchers from IIT-Mumbai and the University of Maryland noted that a key factor is the faster-than-average warming of the Middle East, which drives instability in the Arabian Sea and increases moisture transport into the Western Ghats. This northward push of moist winds results in heavy precipitation concentrated over shorter durations.
Dr Akshay Deoras, research scientist, National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading, UK, said that this year’s pattern—an unusually dry July followed by sudden torrential August downpours—is consistent with broader climatic trends. Globally, a warming atmosphere is expected to enhance the intensity of extreme weather, a trend already reflected in Mumbai’s rainfall variability.
According to Dr Subimal Ghosh, Institute Chair Professor, Department of Civil Engineering & Convener, Interdisciplinary Program in Climate Studies-IIT Mumbai, while forecasting accuracy has improved, information must reach communities in time to enable decisions such as staying off flooded roads or avoiding flood-prone zones. The Mumbai Flood Monitoring System, developed at IIT, is one such tool that disseminates real-time data to key agencies and stakeholders.
However, weather professionals caution that accurate forecasts are meaningless without seamless coordination among civic authorities, disaster management units, and municipal agencies. Former IMD officials have argued that delayed communication between agencies undermines the entire purpose of forecasting. They suggest that clear evacuation protocols and designated escape routes for high-risk areas must become part of long-term planning, rather than reactive measures during crises.
While forecasting reduces risk, scientists and policy experts emphasize that Mumbai must also invest in structural and policy measures to manage flooding. A key recommendation from climate and urban planning experts at the Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW) is to carry out detailed flood mapping of the city, identifying hotspots and modeling drainage patterns. This includes the use of Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves, which help predict expected rainfall volumes and peak flow discharges for different parts of the city. Such predictive frameworks enable planners to design drainage upgrades and flood management strategies tailored to city-specific needs.
The Thane City Flood Risk Management Action Plan (2024), prepared by CEEW, is cited as an example of how systematic analysis can inform resilience strategies. The plan, based on 52 years of rainfall data, created ward-wise flood risk indices and actionable strategies across short-, medium-, and long-term timescales. Experts argue that applying a similar approach in Mumbai will better prepare the city for escalating urban flood risks.
Year after year, the city struggles with the same imagery of waterlogged streets, stranded commuters, and submerged vehicles. But climate researchers and sustainability experts argue that the crisis has now taken a deeper dimension. Studies consistently show that floods are the leading natural disaster globally in terms of losses and damages, and India’s megacities remain highly exposed.
Institutions such as IPE Global are working with the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) to create AI-based multi-hazard risk mapping tools. These would serve as decision-making aids for administrators, helping integrate climate resilience into governance, infrastructure planning, and emergency response.
Analysts stress that while natural variability is a key element driving monsoon swings, human-induced warming acts as an accelerator. With the Arabian Sea heating at an alarming pace and moisture influx intensifying, Mumbai’s vulnerability will only rise. The challenge for the city lies not merely in forecasting storms but in embedding adaptation into its very fabric—through drainage redesign, urban planning, citizen engagement, and technology-driven decision systems.
The consensus is clear: extreme monsoon events are here to stay, and their intensity is only set to increase. For Mumbai, the path forward requires a combination of accurate early warning, effective inter-agency coordination, climate-resilient infrastructure, and informed citizen participation. Without these measures, the city’s familiar cycle of flooding each monsoon will continue to be its most pressing climate challenge.