The BJP has taken the lead over regional parties in Jammu and Kashmir through strategic moves, legislative alterations, population adjustments, and discreet coalition-building efforts.
These moves, initiated after Jammu and Kashmir fell under direct Centre rule following the abrogation of Article 370, have shifted the power balance in favour of Hindu-majority Jammu, the BJP’s stronghold.
Earlier, Kashmir held political sway due to its larger population share of 57 per cent, surpassing Jammu's 43 per cent in the 2011 Census.
However, the political landscape underwent a profound transformation after the Delimitation Commission redrew assembly seats. This pivotal shift allotted Jammu an increased share of 48 per cent, a substantial rise from its former 43 per cent, with six new constituencies to only one in Kashmir.
This change significantly reinforced Jammu's political representation, potentially enabling the election of 32-35 Hindu representatives, and fortifying the BJP's stronghold in the Hindu-majority region.
In the last elections held in November-December 2014, the BJP won 25 seats, all from Jammu.
The BJP stands to benefit from strategically aligned legislative amendments and nominations within its ideological framework, advocating for reserved seats for ‘exiled’ (migrant) Kashmiri Pandits and reforms, including Scheduled Tribe (ST) status for communities like the Paharis and other groups, such as Gadda Brahmins.
This move has bolstered the party in the Muslim-majority Pir Panjal area encompassing Rajouri and Poonch districts of Jammu. These strategic manoeuvres resonated deeply with specific demographics, substantially enhancing the BJP's local support and consolidating its influence.
The recalibration of reservation laws, including Other Backward Groups outside of Scheduled Caste (SC) and ST, particularly favouring Jammu, manifested in altered job quotas and college admissions, further augmenting the BJP's support base.
These adjustments, validated by the Supreme Court upholding the BJP’s Article 370 move, pose a formidable challenge for regional parties within the INDIA bloc striving to counter the BJP's influence.
Despite encountering limited traction in the Kashmir valley, the BJP's strategic collaborations and alliances with smaller regional parties demonstrate the potential to expand its sway in the region.