The last four years have marked significant changes in Jammu and Kashmir, including enhanced security measures, a surge in tourism, and noteworthy investment initiatives. These changes have resonated within and beyond Kashmir's borders. Amidst these visible shifts, an often overlooked aspect is the altered legislative landscape that has redefined the influence of the majority community—a consequence of policy changes driven by the central government.
After the August 2019 abrogation of Article 370, which stripped Jammu and Kashmir of its special status, the BJP established the Delimitation Commission, marking a pivotal moment in reshaping the region's electoral map. The Commission presented its final proposal to the government in May 2022, expanding assembly seats from 83 to 90. Rooted in 2011 census data, this proposal, accepted by the government, notably impacted regional and Muslim representation.
The 2011 census highlighted a 68 per cent Muslim majority in the former state, with Kashmir constituting 56 per cent of the total population of 1.25 crore and Jammu at 43per cent.
In the last legislative assembly, constituted in 2015 and dissolved in 2019, 37 legislators were elected from Jammu, 46 from Kashmir, and four from Ladakh. Out of 87 MLAs, 52 were Muslims, 33 Hindus, and two Buddhists. Hindus accounted for 28 per cent of Jammu and Kashmir's population but had a 38 per cent representation in the assembly. Conversely, Muslims, constituting 68 per cent of the population, had only 60 per cent representation in the legislative assembly.
Jammu, with a 43 per cent population share according to the 2011 Census, had a corresponding 43 per cent share in the assembly, while Kashmir, with a 56 per cent share in the state's population, held a 53 per cent seat share. Ladakh, part of the erstwhile state, had a 2 per cent population share and 4 per cent representation in the assembly.
Post delimitation, Kashmir's share receded from 56 per cent to 52 per cent, while Jammu's surged from 43 per cent to 48 per cent. Consequently, Jammu now occupies 43 seats in the 90-member house, with Kashmir holding 47 seats, predicting the election of 32 to 35 Hindu representatives. The Commission also recommended five nominations to the assembly, benefiting various groups and likely advantageous for the BJP.
After delimitation, six new constituencies emerged in Jammu, all with Hindu majorities. The delimitation faced criticism from regional political parties for favouring smaller-population areas like Jammu over Kashmir, despite Kashmir having over 15 lakh more inhabitants than Jammu. A population-based delimitation would have resulted in 51 seats for Kashmir and 39 for Jammu.
The dispersal of the Muslim population in Muslim-majority districts aims to reduce the number of Muslim-majority seats in certain regions after delimitation.
The ongoing winter session of Parliament witnessed the passage of four bills concerning Jammu and Kashmir, strategically aligned with the BJP's electoral objectives in the Union territory. These bills recognize new social groups and are believed to create a social coalition benefiting the BJP. Specifically, The Constitution (Jammu and Kashmir) Scheduled Tribes Order (Amendment) Bill, 2023, targets the politically significant Pahari community and other tribes/communities in J&K's Scheduled Tribes list, aligning with the BJP's strategy in the region.
These bills further tip the scales in favour of Jammu in reservation laws, impacting job quotas to college admissions, and raising concerns about exacerbating regional disparities. Observers stress the need for equitable representation and opportunity across regions and communities in Jammu and Kashmir, highlighting the BJP's efforts to benefit the Hindu majority in Jammu since the 2009 Amarnath land agitation.