Ten days after External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar’s meeting with his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi in Moscow on the sidelines of a Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) meet, militaries of both sides are yet to finalise the date for their Corps Commanders meeting to defuse the tension on the border, which continues to be on a razor-edge.
On Friday, India’s security establishment including Defence Minister Rajnath Singh, External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar, and National Security Advisor Ajit Doval held a key meeting to discuss future strategy during negotiations with the Chinese.
Official sources claim that Indian side is expected to hold the Corps Commanders meeting by early next week, but they are yet to get confirmation from the Chinese side. This will be the sixth round of talks between the two military commanders and the first after Indian Army's ‘Operation Snow Leopard’ that began on August 29, when Indian troops launched an offensive posturing by taking control of dominating heights in the Chushul region. By gaining control of the dominating heights, Indian can overlook China’s Moldo Garrison.
"This move has not only made the Chinese military rattled but also gives more bargaining powers to Indian side during negotiations. This could probably be the reason for Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) to take much longer time to decide on agreeing to sit on negotiating table," said a senior government official.
Leh-based XIV Corps Commander Lt General Harinder Singh already had five rounds of discussions with his Chinese counterpart Major General Lin Liu, but tje talks could not yield any positive result. The last time both the military commanders met was on August 2.
During Jaishankar and Wang Yi’s meeting, both sides agreed for five-point consensus with a strong emphasis on maintaining peace and tranquillity, dialogue, and disengagement. Both leaders agreed that the current situation on the border areas is not in the interest of either side saying the border troops of both sides should continue their dialogue, quickly disengage, maintain proper distance and ease tensions.
According to military sources, during the military commander's meeting, Lt Genera Harinder will focus first on disengagement, then de-escalation and finally de-induction of massive deployment of men and machine from depth areas on the LAC.
"In the entire crisis, Chinese military has played a role of aggressor, as they initiated the standoff by amassing large number of troops and armament close to the border. So, they should first begin the process of return of their troops to permanent locations. On the other side, Chinese PLA will raise Indian Army's latest move of occupying dominating heights, as they are more concerned about Indian Army's deployment in Kailash Range," an officer said.
Frank O’Donnell, Non-resident Fellow, Stimson Center’s South Asia Program, claims that both sides would prefer for things to quiet down again, so they can wait for tensions to cool and restart negotiations.
"Besides, both militaries will likely have been advised to take the opportunity for another quick tactical gain, if it presents itself. This would restart a new “hot” period of the standoff," Frank O` Donnell said while adding that the eventual outcome could likely be a long-term stalemate, with both sides holding the positions they hold today, and more permanent larger supporting forces stationed nearby.
Harsh Pant, a strategic expert, believes India has consistently maintained that diplomacy is the only way out of the present crisis. "China has paid lip service to this idea while it has continued to needle India militarily on the ground. This makes diplomacy rather difficult," he said.
Keeping a low expectations from the military commander's talk, Indian military planners maintained that the fate of India-China diplomatic and military negotiations over the next few days will be depend to a large extent on how Chinese President Xi Jinping wishes to project himself in the upcoming fifth plenary session of Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, to be held in Beijing in October. Xi Jinping, general secretary of the CPC Central Committee, will preside over the meeting. The Political Bureau will present its work report to the CPC, and the attendees will also assess the proposals for formulating the 14th Five -year (2021-2025) Plan.