As the number of COVID-19 positive cases cross 5,000 in Maharashtra—with over 250 deaths in the past one month—experts fear that the numbers are only set to soar in the coming days. The mortality rate in the state is 4.8 per cent which is higher than the all India rate, but is only two percentage points short of the mortality rate of the entire world, which is 6.8 per cent.
Between March 28 and April 18—in a span of just ten days—there was a sudden rise in the total number of positive cases reported in the state and much of this, to the extent of almost 65 per cent, has been contributed by Mumbai city alone. This is followed by Pune Municipal Corporation and Thane Municipal Corporation.
Experts believe it is the very size of Mumbai, its structure and its nature that have led it to report the maximum number of cases. For instance, more than 86 per cent of the cases are being reported from four main wards of the city—Ward G South, Ward G North, Ward E and Ward D. These wards have slums and semi-slums with a very high population density, almost more than 12,000 people living in one square kilometre area and hence, the concept of social distancing which is crucial for keeping the virus away, is almost meaningless, say experts.
Also, the city's public hospitals are facing an unprecedented load of cases. Despite the BMC being the richest municipal corporation in the country, its hospitals at the forefront, such as Kasturba Hospital, have been unable to keep up. "Given the size of Mumbai, it's important to ensure that there are adequate accessible COVID-19 facilities. However, this needs to be not too thinly spread out, and has to be balanced with enough preparation, PPE and trained staff availability at the designated hospitals. It's worrisome that many health professionals have got infected. This reflects a poor preparation and planning. Concerns have also been raised about hygiene and sanitation in these hospitals, which reflects a chronic public health resource scarcity," says Anant Bhan, researcher, bio ethics and global health.
Dr Om Shrivastav, who is a part of the Maharashtra Task Force set up under Dr Sanjay Oak to fight the crisis, says that doctors from both public and private hospitals in the city have to come united and fight the virus as this is a health concern for one and all.
The police, on its part, is finding it difficult to ensure a strict lockdown in areas where 10-12 people live huddled together in a 10X10 room.
Kiran Dighavkar, assistant commissioner of G North ward which includes the large slum of Dharavi, says, "All we do is to ensure these people do not have to come out of their homes in search of food, medicines, grains or any other essentials. We provide them with everything. Their staying indoor is extremely crucial. Everyday, stores in Dharavi open only for four hours in the morning. After that, an ominous silence prevails in the area otherwise known for its thriving and enterprising atmosphere."